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9 Apr, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Good news: Cases going down again in Netherlands after peak April 1

Bad: Caught in half way yoyo lockdowns.

Travel bans for South Africa, Central and South America Negative PCR test and 10 day self-quarantine for others.

Why not do it all the way.

1/
government.nl/topics/coronav…
Massachusetts:

Premature school opening increases cases in under age 19 year olds.

Some "officials" trying to make excuses, but transmission in school is real, so is long covid in kids.

2/
patch.com/massachusetts/…
Oceania has done much better than other continents. Cases now growing fast in Asia (see India), deaths in Asia and Latin America.

edition.cnn.com/interactive/20…

3/
Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths are continuing their surge in Brazil. Hospital supplies are running low. A record 4,249 COVID-19 deaths on Thursday. It will surpass the worst daily reported deaths in the US in Jan 2021.

4/
 reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Brazil figures

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
11 Apr
Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete.

What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).

1/
Key the pseudo scientific speculation.

Here is a paper explaining this

Limits to phenomenology.

necsi.edu/the-limits-of-…

2/ Image
What is the alternative? Complexity science of multiscale representations.

Use empirical observations as tests of representations.

This is the scientific method that includes the relationship between empirical and theoretical frameworks.

3/
necsi.edu/why-complexity…
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
7 Apr
Norway is considering and may lead Europe to a ZeroCovid strategy!
"Geographically differentiated: There is now a significant difference between the municipalities in the spread of the epidemic. Most municipalities have no or only a few cases,...

1/
"some municipalities have ongoing outbreaks while some municipalities in central Eastern Norway have a persistently high incidence (which can be tens of times higher than most of the country otherwise).

2/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Apr
India: Strong but late action

New cases surged passed 100,000 a day -- over 103,790 new cases on Sunday -- more than the previous peak to be the highest number of daily cases recorded since the pandemic began.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
"The extraordinary rise of the cases in the last few days has alarmed the government and scientific community, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to hold a high level meeting of all concerned ministries and officers of the COVID-19 task force.

2/
"In a tweet, the prime minister said he "reiterated the importance of the five fold strategy of testing, tracing, treatment, COVID-appropriate behaviour, and vaccination as an effective way to fight the global pandemic".

3/
Read 11 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Apr
UK Variant in the US leading to much higher reported infections among children.

Children under 10 as well as 10-19.

COVID-19 cases spike in Michigan, fueled by infections among kids

cbsnews.com/news/covid-mic… via @CBSHealth
And in Chicago:

Children now playing 'huge role' in spread of COVID-19 variant, expert says

abc7chicago.com/health/kids-no… via @abc7chicago
It was a mistake to open schools.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Apr
Portugal is at about 420 cases per day.

The decrease has slowed recently because of a partial reopening.

Let's review success based on a strong lockdown and non-essential travel restrictions between municipalities.

Many municipalities have controled their outbreaks

1/
Here are the region by region relative fire plots.

Impressive progress toward elimination

2/
Next set:

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
3 Apr
Far from being over, the number of cases of COVID is rapidly increasing and approaching its previous peak.

1/
The pandemic is currently at its worst right now in many countries.

2/
The Philippines: 12,576 new cases, and positivity at record high 24%.

Ukraine: 20,341 new cases, and 396 new deaths.

Turkey: 44,756 new cases.

Chile: 8,112 new cases.

All are largest one-day increases on record.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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