1) Since April 1, the age group in Quebec reporting both the greatest number of #COVID19 hospitalizations and the sharpest increase are those in their 60s, according to the latest provincial data. This is a drop of 20 years from the first wave.
2) The data by Quebec’s public health institute shows a net increase of 80 #pandemic hospitalizations since the start of the month for a total of 583. This suggests the third wave is already having a deleterious effect on the province.
3) The number of #COVID19 deaths has risen by 61 to 10,737 in Quebec since April 1. In the eight days prior to the start of April, the number of deaths rose by 49. Again, this suggests the third wave is growing worse in Quebec.
4) On Thursday, Premier François Legault maintained Montreal has been stuck in a plateau of new #COVID19 cases of 300 to 400 a day for several weeks. (In fact, it never rose to 400). On Saturday, Montreal posted 428 cases, suggesting the third wave is now rising in the city, too.
5) But it’s the Capitale Nationale region where the number of variant #COVID19 cases is virtually exploding. The rate of the more transmissible variant cases per 100,000 residents in this region rose to 501.5, more than double Montreal’s rate. Please see the chart below.
6) COVID-19 cases are now climbing all across the province in addition to Montreal and the Capitale-Nationale, including in the Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean, the Laurentians, Lanaudière, Montérégie, Chaudière-Appalaches, Outaouais and even the more remote Côte Nord.
7) The number of #COVID19 outbreaks across the province jumped by 31 to 976. The biggest increase occurred in the workplace (516, up by 17), followed by schools (259, up by eight), health care (70, up by four) and at unspecified events (29, up by two).
8) At the same time, the province set a record 73,023 #COVID19 vaccinations on Friday. In Montreal, health professionals administered more than 15,000 shots, another daily record. At present, 25.94% of Montreal’s population has been partially vaccinated.
9) The question that nearly everyone is asking is whether the vaccine coverage in Montreal is now sufficient to reduce the third wave. The short answer is no. Experts have suggested at least 70 to 80 per cent vaccine coverage is necessary to achieve collective immunity.
10) Montreal’s gloriously warm spring weather is belying the fact that the third wave is truly posing a threat in the city. On Sunday, the red zone of Montreal returns to the 8 p.m. curfew. But will that restriction be enough to stop the third wave? End of thread. Stay safe.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

10 Apr
1) COVID-19 outbreaks in Quebec workplaces are not getting the attention they deserve, but they’ve been surging just as much, if not more, than those in schools. On Friday, the number of such clusters jumped by 25 to 499. In this thread, I will address the workplace phenomenon.
2) Since April 1, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools across Quebec has risen from 175 to 251, or 43%. During the same period, workplace outbreaks have climbed from 349 to 499, or 43% as well. Yet the risks of workplace contagion are not being discussed as much.
3) Perhaps that’s one of the reasons why Quebec made masks mandatory for employees in all workplaces on Thursday. No doubt the more transmissible variants spurred public health authorities to act more aggressively in this third wave. But which workplaces are the most vulnerable?
Read 10 tweets
9 Apr
1) The impact of the third wave on Quebec hospitals thus far is not nearly as severe as what is going on in Ontario, but there are ominous signs the situation is deteriorating in the acute-care system here. In this thread, I will examine those signs.
2) As I report in my @mtlgazette column tonight, over-burdened Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital is now offloading #COVID19 patients to nearby Santa Cabrini Hospital. The reason is a severe shortage of nurses. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) In the past nine days, the number of #COVID hospitalizations in Quebec has jumped from 487 to 566. The biggest increase is being observed in the 60-to-69 age group, as you can glimpse from the chart below. In the first wave, it was patients in their 80s who were hospitalized.
Read 10 tweets
8 Apr
1) On the eve of a second 5 p.m. news conference tomorrow by Premier François Legault this week, it’s now clear that the #pandemic in Quebec has deteriorated sharply in the past two days. In this thread, I will take stock of the latest worrisome trends.
2) First, let me extend my heartfelt condolences to the family of the 16-year-old student who died of #COVID19 at Sainte-Justine Hospital Saturday, the youngest person in Quebec to have succumbed to the #coronavirus, most likely from one of the variants. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) Quebec posted an increase of 29 #COVID19 hospitalizations Wednesday, raising the total in the province to 543. The increase was the highest since Jan. 17, when Quebec was at the peak of its second wave. Yet Health Minister Christian Dubé downplayed the severity of the spike.
Read 11 tweets
7 Apr
1) A record 27 schools across Quebec announced on Tuesday that they have suspected variant #COVID19 cases. Most are found in the Capitale-Nationale region, which has already shut schools until April 12. But seven schools are located in the Montreal area.
2) On Tuesday evening, Premier François Legault backtracked on his decision requiring Montreal high school seniors to attend classes five days a week. But as the latest list by covidecolesquebec.org shows, the variants are still circulating widely in Montreal classrooms.
3) Legault again asserted that the situation is under control in Montreal. Please let me draw your attention to an article by my @mltgazette colleague @katelynthomas that Montreal's #COVID19 case numbers are again rising from a plateau. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Read 10 tweets
4 Apr
1) It appears that even during the third wave, mass vaccinations in Montreal may be blunting the impact of the more contagious variants, while these strains surge in other regions with much lower inoculation rates. In this thread, I will focus on the vaccination effort.
2) This is not to suggest that the #pandemic is under control in Montreal, as Premier François Legault claimed last week without evidence. More than three quarters of the city’s population has still not received a shot and the variants are still spreading in the metropolis.
3) The #COVID19 variants struck Montreal first, long before the outlying regions, and the city has accumulated the most cases of the more transmissible strains. But it’s worth pointing out that the variants are now surging faster in regions with much lower vaccination rates.
Read 13 tweets
3 Apr
Breaking: Quebec on Saturday reports its biggest daily increase yet in the number of #COVID19 variant cases: 771, for a total of 9,558. Positivity rate up to 60.3%. Big data dump. More tweets to come.
2) The Capitale-Nationale is surging with #COVID19 variants, up by 338 cases since Friday. The region is posting a rate of 217.9 variant cases per 100,000 residents, the highest by far of any region. Laval comes in second with a rate of 181.8.
3) The Côte Nord records for the first time variant cases, two of them. This means that the more contagious variants like B.1.1.7 are now circulating in 14 of Quebec's 16 regions.
Read 12 tweets

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