Apart for the amazing confirmation of the existence of OLD PCR+ noted as cases, we can use the official data on cases detected for test type to do some interesting analysis.
1st wave was obviously a PCR issue, not interesting except for little scale due to lower testing.
Zooming in 2nd&3rd Waves we observe a CLEAR disproportion between them, depending on test type.
2nd wave was over 2/3 of 3rd thru PCR, but less than 1/3 thru antigen!!
The MUST be same proportion. Why is there EXTRA PCR+ positivity?!
We've talked about it LONG AGO:
OLD cases.
That shows even clearer when you draw observed positivity for PCR&Antigen.
3rd wave, the winter seasonal expected wave, shows similar positivities, meaning every kind of test founding the same, but 2nd wave is unbalanced, with only a 60% of positivity thru Antigen.
I remark this is official data. No model.
They KNOW using PCR makes the cases grow.
They KNOW it happens because extremely high Ct are finding old cases.
There's no RATIONAL to ignore that facts for epidemic control, it is A POLITICAL manipulation.
It is a FACT.
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We've refined our calculations with Madrid Ct data. We've included pure false positivity, and isolated PCR&Antigen real/official series.
The 2nd wave is showing it's mainly Human made thru test policy, which maintained high proportional levels thru winter: Xmas irresponsibility
We can calculate official positive #test for each kind of test, considering Cts
Despite the variable proportion PCR+ are always more important in Epidemic creation, specially weird spikes, not shown in the more natural Antigen+
Guess when is more different?
Yep, Irresponsible!
We observed a relation between official positivity and inverted average Ct.
It does mean positivity is contaminated with high test pressure, creating more positivity than real.
We also observe average Ct<28 relates with Epidemic growth, while higher values point descent/plateau
It's so interesting: just dividing the test done for the cases found the PREVIOUS week, we can see test pressure is NOT dependent on Epidemic spread BUT political intentions.
It's Madrid data, as we're currently working with.
One usual myth used by trølls and or government, sorry for the redundance, is claiming that is not that rising the number of test increases cases, BUT the raise in case forces increase in test.
It's FALSE.
It's EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE:
More test pressure when lower cases found.
For graph dummies, red line means up to 25 test/case-found are made with low spread, but only 5 during spike.
It should be a straight line, the more u find the more you search, or a Crisis Watch, curve related to Epidemic curve: u search even more when u find.
Twitter is build for noise.
Very often I need to Google my own old tweets, as TL is a dark, chaotic, bottomless pit.
I'm gathering here our team's
main original work, with their link and a little description, as an easy way to find them, both for me and anyone interested.
This is our statistically true daily infection reconstruction.
It uses the time from infection to death curve proportionally for each decease.
Deaths is the less manipulable series, and time curve is not disputed even among covidlievers.
The Madrid Region dossier we've been commenting lately is full of proofs of appalling intentions from our gov'ts.
The sheet on universal screenings shows the LACK of test confirmation after a positive.
The protocol includes not this step, and ONE positive is noted as 'Case'
There IS redundant check for NEGATIVES, as we see in the Close Contact protocol sheet.
Antigen negative is double checked thru PCR.
It also shows that EVEN negative test have quarantine consequences.
If every PCR+ mean case, without check, it means accepting ALL FALSE POSITIVES
But the worst antiscientifical manipulation, for me, hides in the footnote
PCR is specially recommended in LOW PREVALENCE SCREENINGS
There's a purely MATHEMATICAL rational for low prevalence suffering high proportion of False Positives, plain, non "covid is new" debatable truth