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11 Apr, 6 tweets, 2 min read
When it comes to Canada's housing market, it's clear now that it was a deliberate strategy of the @JustinTrudeau Liberal government to put the interests of foreign investors ahead of of Canadians 1/
theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/…
The foreign investors benefited

Our Prime Minister benefited through multiple cash-for-access dinners.

And yes, homeowners have benefited from higher home prices ......but at what cost? 2/
theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/…
Every home owner would like to see their home's value increase, but the reason for this increase should not be because our federal government decided to sell off our new housing supply to wealthy foreign investors. 3/
In Justin's Canada, the ends justify the means.

Does it matter that one of the primary reasons (not the only reason) for over-inflated house prices in Canada is because his wealthy foreign donors pushed house prices well above what local people could afford?

No! 4/
Because the goal is to inflate house prices so our economy looks stronger than it truly is, so he can get re-elected.

The 2/3 of Canadians who own their homes are duped into believing he's doing a great job because their home's value keeps going up.... 5/
How cares if their kids can never afford to buy a home. Not Justin's problem!

What a terrible vision for Canada!

He has deliberately screwed an entire generation out of the dream of buying a home, and why?

To enrich his wealthy foreign donors!

Truly unbelievable! /

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More from @JohnPasalis

John Pasalis Profile picture
12 Apr
“We have a very good system of foreign investment creating a lot of new housing in Canada”

Now that our government has said it’s a “good system” to sell off our new housing supply to foreign investors (vs domestic homebuyers), why is this a problem? 1/

First of all, it doesn’t really matter if foreign investors are buying a new home or a resale home – the problem this creates in our housing market is the exact same, it artificially inflates home prices.

Why does this happen? 2/
When a Canadian tries to buy a new house or condominium, their home buying budget is based on their domestic income and their down payment is based on the after tax dollars they have saved.

Can a young household compete against a wealthy foreign investor – of course not! 3/
Read 11 tweets
John Pasalis Profile picture
11 Apr
“We’re a very safe market for foreign investment but we’re not a great market for Canadians looking for choices around housing”

Parliamentary Secretary for Housing @TOAdamVaughan summarizing Canada’s housing market in this @TheAgenda interview 1/
tvo.org/video/what-sho…
But this is largely a product of their own goals to use foreign capital to finance single family home construction which we know inflates house prices.

“We have a very good system of foreign investment creating a lot of new housing in Canada” 2/
He actually admits that our housing market is “a market that’s driven by speculation” and goes on to say that “it gets very very tricky to curb speculation”

It’s actually not tricky, many other countries have done it. Canada has no interest in curbing speculation… Why? 3/
Read 5 tweets
John Pasalis Profile picture
2 Oct 20
Top line number for the Toronto Area's real estate market in September.

The growth in sales was driven by strong suburban demand. Sales were up in:

Halton 73%
York 50%
Durham 55%
Peel 45%

Sales in the City of Toronto were up 18% - see all GTA stats here
realosophy.com/greater-toront…
New listings were up 12% for low-rise houses in the GTA but active inventory (total number of homes for sale) is still down 20% over last year.
But things look very different in the condo market where new listings were up 73% over last year and active listings are up 99%
Read 5 tweets
John Pasalis Profile picture
30 Sep 20
A good look at the challenges facing Toronto’s condo investors. 1/ theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/ar…
“There’s the risk of losing the tenant and the property not selling ... [and] I can’t find you another tenant. We used to have 10-12 units up for lease, now it’s 80 units. I’ll put a unit for sale in one building and [get] not a single showing on some of these properties.” 2/
The risks today’s condo investors are facing are typical recessionary risks –

a decline in demand due to a drop in immigration and higher rates of unemployment

an increase in inventory as younger people move back home because of job loss… 3/
Read 6 tweets
John Pasalis Profile picture
8 Sep 20
A brief thread on the urban exodus we keep hearing about.

Firstly, it’s not just anecdotes – you can see here that the outer suburbs have seen the biggest increase in sales year over year since the market picked up again in June 1/
That said, we are not seeing a hollowing out of the city.

Simcoe saw 1,420 more home sales this year vs last year compared to 937 in Toronto.

The big % difference is because total sales in Simcoe are far lower than in Toronto. 2/
While there is a clear behavioural shift, it’s a small percentage of the population.

Everyone isn’t leaving the city to move to the country.

While downtown homes are still very competitive, we are seeing a slow down in the condo market (rentals and resales) 3/
Read 8 tweets
John Pasalis Profile picture
3 Sep 20
The sales data in the GTA last month represents a delayed spring market, and prices are skewed up by more low-rise home sales but it doesn't change the fact that this is the exact opposite trend that was predicted by most economists including CMHC ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/august-gr…
So far, the only forecast I'm aware of that is even remotely close to being accurate is from @TD_Economics . They were mocked for predicting at the height of the pandemic that GTA prices would end the year up 8%, they are currently up 13% torontostoreys.com/toronto-home-p…
And to be clear, I did not predict the market would be booming during a pandemic and have no idea how long this will last. My point is that overconfidence is a behavioural bias often associated with bulls - but bears are just as vulnerable to this bias.
Read 5 tweets

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