Thread by @lxeagle17

Lot of misconceptions about who HR-1 benefits with higher voter turnout.

Here's a simple regression of how a county's turnout change from 2012 (as a % of 2012 votes) correlates with 2020 Democratic margin (weighted by votes cast). Not *at all* clear that the GOP is hurt by this.

I'm sharing this with caution because of ecological fallacy risk; we don't know who is the surge voter from this regression. I'm just trying to see if there's an obvious correlation about which party gains with higher turnout in presidential years benefits. I can't see any.

This is actually suggesting that there is an ever-so-slight correlation between higher turnout and a small Republican lean, but I really don't feel comfortable drawing that conclusion given that the granularity of the data points is only at a county level. Use this with caution.

So, a shot in the dark, but if anyone sees this: @gelliottmorris @JMilesColeman @Nate_Cohn, @JessicaHuseman @ryanmatsumoto1 @lennybronner @baseballot Have you guys observed anything along the lines of whom higher presidential turnout actually benefits? I'm really not sure myself

Hoping one of you may have answers to this, it's confounded me for a while now and I don't really currently have any better ways to pick up on surge voters. I don't have precinct data or the individual voter files for states, so I don't know as much as I'd like to here.