Susan Collins outperformed John McCain by about 40 points in 2008.
In 2020, she outperformed Trump by somewhere around 15 points.
Polarization has slammed every single area.
In 2020, she outperformed Trump by somewhere around 15 points.
Polarization has slammed every single area.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1379883520928096256
In 2008, Mary Landrieu won her Louisiana Senate race by about 6.5 points, outperforming Barack Obama by about 25 points.
That wasn't even the biggest Senate overperformance; Johnson (SD), Collins (ME), and Pryor (AR) overperformed by much more.
This is unfathomable now.
That wasn't even the biggest Senate overperformance; Johnson (SD), Collins (ME), and Pryor (AR) overperformed by much more.
This is unfathomable now.
Don't "Joe Manchin" this when you know we're talking about presidential year overperformance, but if we're going to make that (very) flawed comparison, Manchin overperformed Obama by 51 points in 2012.
In 2018, he won by 3, which is a 42 point improvement on Biden's 2020 margin.
In 2018, he won by 3, which is a 42 point improvement on Biden's 2020 margin.
this sounds like a useless thread but I really just want to emphasize that if Biden is at a 53% approval rating come November 2022 (a big if), then polarization might just point to a decent Democratic year downballot as well.
Of course, if he's in the mid-to-low 40s like Obama was in October 2010, that's another concerning datapoint, but I currently do not think this is as likely of a scenario as it would have been in the past.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
