What happens if you project the 2020 electorate onto a midterm?
Here's the 2020 electorate for a variety of swing states projected across the last 4 midterms. The blue wave of 2006 being worse in a geographic projection than the 2010 red wave shows the realignment quite starkly.
Here's the 2020 electorate for a variety of swing states projected across the last 4 midterms. The blue wave of 2006 being worse in a geographic projection than the 2010 red wave shows the realignment quite starkly.
Geographic projections miss the individual voter shift, but are a correlate of that effect, so it's an okay first-order approximation. Dem midterm edge among educated voters is clearest in Georgia, where the GOP base relies disproportionately on non-college whites.
Additionally, the explosive growth of metro areas in Georgia, Texas and North Carolina, combined with population loss in the rurals, might actually show an overly-friendly GOP edge in the older midterm years in those states.
Partisan enthusiasm often matters a lot more, but in a high-turnout scenario where partisans of both sides turn out (2018 is the clear example), Democrats do have a non-negligible edge of a point or two IMO.
For anyone curious about Minnesota:
2020: D+7.11
2018: D+8.19
2014: D+6.46
2010: D+6.11
2006: D+6.30
2020: D+7.11
2018: D+8.19
2014: D+6.46
2010: D+6.11
2006: D+6.30
anyways, here's Wonderwall
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