What happens if you project the 2020 electorate onto a midterm?

Here's the 2020 electorate for a variety of swing states projected across the last 4 midterms. The blue wave of 2006 being worse in a geographic projection than the 2010 red wave shows the realignment quite starkly.
Geographic projections miss the individual voter shift, but are a correlate of that effect, so it's an okay first-order approximation. Dem midterm edge among educated voters is clearest in Georgia, where the GOP base relies disproportionately on non-college whites.
Additionally, the explosive growth of metro areas in Georgia, Texas and North Carolina, combined with population loss in the rurals, might actually show an overly-friendly GOP edge in the older midterm years in those states.
Partisan enthusiasm often matters a lot more, but in a high-turnout scenario where partisans of both sides turn out (2018 is the clear example), Democrats do have a non-negligible edge of a point or two IMO.
For anyone curious about Minnesota:

2020: D+7.11
2018: D+8.19
2014: D+6.46
2010: D+6.11
2006: D+6.30
anyways, here's Wonderwall

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More from @lxeagle17

12 Apr
Lot of misconceptions about who HR-1 benefits with higher voter turnout.

Here's a simple regression of how a county's turnout change from 2012 (as a % of 2012 votes) correlates with 2020 Democratic margin (weighted by votes cast). Not *at all* clear that the GOP is hurt by this.
I'm sharing this with caution because of ecological fallacy risk; we don't know who is the surge voter from this regression. I'm just trying to see if there's an obvious correlation about which party gains with higher turnout in presidential years benefits. I can't see any.
This is actually suggesting that there is an ever-so-slight correlation between higher turnout and a small Republican lean, but I really don't feel comfortable drawing that conclusion given that the granularity of the data points is only at a county level. Use this with caution.
Read 5 tweets
11 Apr
To summarize how bad of a candidate Rick Santorum is, he's one of the very few politicians who managed to turn incumbency into a large disadvantage.
How this man thought he could ever run for President and win, I truly do not know, but never doubt the hubris of a DC politician surrounded by lobbyists.
nothing in particular sparked this tweet I just think any time is a good time to laugh at Rick Santorum
Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
🚨MODEL DROP🚨: @notkavi and I have built a model (@bot_2024) that will provide a host of possible 2024 maps based on demographics, coalitions, the continuation/reversal/acceleration of differing trends, and varying national environments. It will tweet one map a day.
We estimate demographics by taking ACS estimates and projecting 2024 totals based on demographic trends. Electoral vote totals are per @270toWin’s estimate of reapportionment after the census. Close states (<0.5% margin) are made a lighter shade of the winning party's color.
By perturbing specific feature weights, we (largely) preserve county correlations, which should avoid some ridiculous maps. The purpose of the exercise is not to predict, but to showcase a range of scenarios on what 2024 could look like.
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
Susan Collins outperformed John McCain by about 40 points in 2008.

In 2020, she outperformed Trump by somewhere around 15 points.

Polarization has slammed every single area.
In 2008, Mary Landrieu won her Louisiana Senate race by about 6.5 points, outperforming Barack Obama by about 25 points.

That wasn't even the biggest Senate overperformance; Johnson (SD), Collins (ME), and Pryor (AR) overperformed by much more.

This is unfathomable now.
Don't "Joe Manchin" this when you know we're talking about presidential year overperformance, but if we're going to make that (very) flawed comparison, Manchin overperformed Obama by 51 points in 2012.

In 2018, he won by 3, which is a 42 point improvement on Biden's 2020 margin.
Read 5 tweets
7 Apr
This is so unsettling
God bless the ASU
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
It's kind of strange to see how much glee some people derive out of reminding other people of "impending doom around the corner".

It honestly sounds like such an exhausting way to live.
For example, "you do know variants mean we'll never go back to normal? Permanent social distancing may be here"

Or "You know Trump will win in 2024 and the GOP will have 60 seats by then, right? After these two years, we'll be back to the minority for the next 6"
There's a difference between "caution is warranted" and "let me project endless pessimism to spoil your mood", and it honestly feels like we're so used to getting disappointed that a ton of people now project pessimism onto everyone else to ensure that they feel the same fear.
Read 4 tweets

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