Thread by @TorstenBell

Big day for the economy (as well as the quality of our hair) today as retail and hospitality sectors open back up. Consumer spending = 62% GDP and was down around 10% last year.

Our priorities: eating out and getting our hair cut (shockingly we're four times as likely to want to eat out as go to the gym...)

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1381491723604525056?s=20

For hospitality this is unmitigated good news - they've been the epicentre of this crisis (over half have limited cash reserves left) and those businesses able to operate under new rules (ie outdoor space) will see fast bounce backs in activity from incredibly low levels

For retail this is a much more complicated story - because there have been big winners (as well as many losers) during this crisis as people not only switched spending between different types of retail, but also switched hospitality/holiday spend into retail

Moving out of lockdown will definitely initially help retail sales overall (they were ABOVE normal levels from July right through to December last year). But when we can go on holiday or eat/drink without freezing body parts off, we should expect overall retail sales to fall

Some big shifts within retail will also start to unwind - this is good news for clothing retailers (spend is down 50%) and bad news for food/drink shops and anyone selling stuff for our homes (household goods spending on DIY kit and electronics have surged during the crisis)

We should also expect some unwinding of the surge in online shopping which will itself mean winners and losers (in February 36% of retail sales were online, up 77% from 20% pre-crisis). Last summer we saw about half the surge unwind as bricks and mortar retail reopened.

We should remember the backdrop for the retail and hospitality sectors are VERY different. Retail is in a structural decline/restructuring that this crisis will have speeded up high street retail wise. For hospitality this will be a (big) blip in its long term growth.

Anyway, hopefully of some interest. More importantly enjoy the novelty of being allowed to do things today that no-one ever dreamed would have been illegal! Oh, and wrap up warm for your first pint.