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Roger Pielke Jr.

@RogerPielkeJr

12 Apr

@Scienceofsport

Motivated by @Scienceofsport 🧵

Can we agree that female physiology gives an advantage over males in women's gymnastics?

And if so can we further agree that gymnastics rules for trans athletes should thus be very different than, say, boxing?

See: doi.org/10.1080/147631…

Sports w/ female athleticism superior or equivalent to male athleticism

YES
gymnastics (F)
rhythmic gymnastics
synchronized swimming
diving
equestrian
sailing
racing (car, motorbike, horse)

MAYBE
ice skating/dancing
skiing
luge
bobsled
distance swimming
endurance running

More?

Now bear with me... imagine a 19th/20th century alternative history with the western world female dominated & our female leaders created a modern Olympics centered on exalting female athleticism - like in gymnastics and synchronized swimming (as above), with men cheering along...

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Roger Pielke Jr.

@RogerPielkeJr

9 Apr

How we talk about disasters has changed dramatically (since ~2006)

The IPCC definition of "climate change" as a detectable change in the statistics of weather (and outcome metric) has been increasingly rejected in favor of "climate change" defined as a causal actor that changes weather

These definitions are 100% incompatible

17 years ago I wrote about how the different definitions of "climate change" used by the FCCC and IPCC was problematic for connecting science and policy
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…

The increasing use of "climate" (or "climate change") as a causal actor adds to this dissonance

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Roger Pielke Jr.

@RogerPielkeJr

8 Apr

🧵
Science Diplomacy and The Pandemic Treaty

Here are five important science-related issues to include in any future global pandemic treaty

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/science-dipl…

1⃣
First, improve the process for the WHO’s declaration of a public health emergency.

2⃣
Second, countries should agree on common standards for data collection and dissemination during a pandemic, to inform responses and enable relevant research to be undertaken.

3⃣
Third, nations should agree to establish international standards for the recommendation of vaccine and drug approval in a pandemic.

4⃣
Fourth, nations should agree on procedures for investigations of pandemic origins.

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Roger Pielke Jr.

@RogerPielkeJr

6 Apr

Recently I've had many convos w/ academic faculty about diversity

One common view is that academic excellence means denying as many students as possible an opportunity to come to our campus, called EXCLUSIVITY

That's just wrong

Academic excellence means ACCESSIBILITY for all

University EXCLUSIVITY is in practice the manufacturing of demand for access far above the ability of a campus to supply education

That supply/demand mismatch justifies high tuition rates which further supports EXCLUSIVITY

So campuses become most accessible to the wealthiest

Some campuses use high tuition to subsidize lower income students thus enhancing accessibility

This is impractical for state schools as tuition rates can never be this high

The net effect is the increasing presence of wealthiest at state schools at the expense of the poorest

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Roger Pielke Jr.

@RogerPielkeJr

3 Apr

@jfischman

🍎 to 🍎

This (left) million to one estimate of likelihood of natural origin to lab leak from @jfischman is incorrect

In 2012 Klotz & Sylvester (right) estimated an 80% change of a lab leak pandemic based on simple assumptions

scientificamerican.com/article/its-mu…

thebulletin.org/2012/08/the-un…

The fact that COVID-19 first broke out in a city housing one of the world's few high-level labs engaged in bat coronavirus research means a lab leak necessarily must be on the list of possible origins until it's conclusively refuted, regardless what theoretical arguments are made

The CDC current says that 15% to 70% of COVID-19 cases may be asymptomatic, with a best guess of 30% (deets below)

So if there was a lab leak, there is a meaningful chance that the leak would have been unknown to the lab or the individual(s) who may have been a vector

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Roger Pielke Jr.

@RogerPielkeJr

29 Mar

@MattHourihan

This is a great reality check via @MattHourihan

To hit a 2% of GDP target for US federal R&D spending (i.e., same as peak of space race) would require annual $ increases of:

30%-->2026
18%-->2030
13%-->2035
10%-->2040

@aaas

US federal R&D $ has been more or less constant as a % of domestic discretionary spending for >40 years
Data @aaas @MattHourihan

Meaningful increases in R&D $ > increases in domestic disc $ would represent the most significant change in US R&D OVERALL budget policy in a half century

So key to watch is if federal spending increases dramatically overall, cause R&D ain't gonna eat someone else's lunch

/END

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