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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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12 Apr, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Motivated by @Scienceofsport 🧵

Can we agree that female physiology gives an advantage over males in women's gymnastics?

And if so can we further agree that gymnastics rules for trans athletes should thus be very different than, say, boxing?

See: doi.org/10.1080/147631…
Sports w/ female athleticism superior or equivalent to male athleticism

YES
gymnastics (F)
rhythmic gymnastics
synchronized swimming
diving
equestrian
sailing
racing (car, motorbike, horse)

MAYBE
ice skating/dancing
skiing
luge
bobsled
distance swimming
endurance running

More?
Now bear with me... imagine a 19th/20th century alternative history with the western world female dominated & our female leaders created a modern Olympics centered on exalting female athleticism - like in gymnastics and synchronized swimming (as above), with men cheering along...
In such a world, would the "trans debate" of the 21st century be instead mainly about male trans athletes with the biological advantages of females who never went through male puberty?
Think about it
The sports that we celebrate today are actually social constructions, developed to exclude women, by focusing on extreme male athleticism
It is quite possible to envision a more diverse sport landscape that includes sports that focus on extreme female athleticism
The best/worst example of this dynamic is American football

Read the insightful passage below from Prof Michael Messner USC

Full paper (excellent): michaelmessner.org/wp-content/upl… Image
When we debate issues related to trans athlete inclusion in sport, always remember that this debate occurs in a context of history

And that history tells the story of female exclusion and empowerment, but all built upon a mostly invisible superstructure of patriarchy & culture

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
12 Apr
Lots of good comments on our newly revised preprint, keep’em coming 🙏⤵️
If we view the future through the lens of plausible IPCC scenarios (AR5 & SSP consistent with 2005-2020 reality & 2020-2040 near-term projections), the below shows fossil fuel CO2 emissions without application of an negative emissions technologies Image
One comment we have received on this analysis is that the envelope of emissions in 2100 from plausible scenarios may not actually reflect all plausible outcomes

We agree!

That is an argument (which we make) for updating IPCC scenarios & not continuing to use outdated scenarios
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
9 Apr
How we talk about disasters has changed dramatically (since ~2006) Image
The IPCC definition of "climate change" as a detectable change in the statistics of weather (and outcome metric) has been increasingly rejected in favor of "climate change" defined as a causal actor that changes weather

These definitions are 100% incompatible Image
17 years ago I wrote about how the different definitions of "climate change" used by the FCCC and IPCC was problematic for connecting science and policy
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…

The increasing use of "climate" (or "climate change") as a causal actor adds to this dissonance Image
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
8 Apr
🧵
Science Diplomacy and The Pandemic Treaty

Here are five important science-related issues to include in any future global pandemic treaty

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/science-dipl…
1⃣
First, improve the process for the WHO’s declaration of a public health emergency.

2⃣
Second, countries should agree on common standards for data collection and dissemination during a pandemic, to inform responses and enable relevant research to be undertaken.
3⃣
Third, nations should agree to establish international standards for the recommendation of vaccine and drug approval in a pandemic.

4⃣
Fourth, nations should agree on procedures for investigations of pandemic origins.
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
6 Apr
Recently I've had many convos w/ academic faculty about diversity

One common view is that academic excellence means denying as many students as possible an opportunity to come to our campus, called EXCLUSIVITY

That's just wrong

Academic excellence means ACCESSIBILITY for all
University EXCLUSIVITY is in practice the manufacturing of demand for access far above the ability of a campus to supply education

That supply/demand mismatch justifies high tuition rates which further supports EXCLUSIVITY

So campuses become most accessible to the wealthiest
Some campuses use high tuition to subsidize lower income students thus enhancing accessibility

This is impractical for state schools as tuition rates can never be this high

The net effect is the increasing presence of wealthiest at state schools at the expense of the poorest
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
3 Apr
🍎 to 🍎

This (left) million to one estimate of likelihood of natural origin to lab leak from @jfischman is incorrect

In 2012 Klotz & Sylvester (right) estimated an 80% change of a lab leak pandemic based on simple assumptions

scientificamerican.com/article/its-mu…

thebulletin.org/2012/08/the-un…
The fact that COVID-19 first broke out in a city housing one of the world's few high-level labs engaged in bat coronavirus research means a lab leak necessarily must be on the list of possible origins until it's conclusively refuted, regardless what theoretical arguments are made
The CDC current says that 15% to 70% of COVID-19 cases may be asymptomatic, with a best guess of 30% (deets below)

So if there was a lab leak, there is a meaningful chance that the leak would have been unknown to the lab or the individual(s) who may have been a vector
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Mar
This is a great reality check via @MattHourihan

To hit a 2% of GDP target for US federal R&D spending (i.e., same as peak of space race) would require annual $ increases of:

30%-->2026
18%-->2030
13%-->2035
10%-->2040
US federal R&D $ has been more or less constant as a % of domestic discretionary spending for >40 years
Data @aaas @MattHourihan
Meaningful increases in R&D $ > increases in domestic disc $ would represent the most significant change in US R&D OVERALL budget policy in a half century

So key to watch is if federal spending increases dramatically overall, cause R&D ain't gonna eat someone else's lunch

/END
Read 4 tweets

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