I spent Spring Break in Texas with my family last week and I can report that Team Apocalypse has lost the war.
Flights were 100% full with many families. In-flight food and drinks have returned. Airports packed on both ends - a world of difference from just a few months ago.
Everything is open in Texas and (outside of Austin), you'd be hard pressed to recall the "pandemic". Restaurants are crowded, people were friendly, there's live music, tourist areas are packed, there's no sanitation theater, and masks are rare.
Even in places that ostensibly require masks (Walmart, H-E-B), less than 20% of people were actually wearing a mask - and no one made a big deal about it, either way.
In fact, I never wore a mask for a single second outside of the Austin airport.
Outdoors, no one wears a mask in Texas (a world of difference from Washington). The parks are so popular that they have a reservation system and most are booked solid through May.
We also visited multiple museums, a zoo, the Riverwalk and the Alamo - fully open and maskless.
Overall, people are much friendlier in Texas. In Seattle, it is common to see people jump into the bushes and turn their backs on my family. In Texas, strangers started conversations with us every single day and no one was afraid of children.
Finally, I have to say that Texans sure love Texas.
I've never seen so many state flags; it seems like every home flies the Texas flag.
Texas was vibrant, alive - happy. A far cry from the tangible feeling of despair and the fear evident in Seattle (and other blue cities).
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Excluding microstates, two of the top seven most vaccinated nations are the neighboring states of Hungary and Serbia, each having vaccinated more than 25% of the population:
Serbia initiated their program more quickly, but Hungary has recently surpassed Serbia.
It will be interesting to see if these efforts have resulted in declining infections and/or fatalities.
Initially, cases appear to have risen sharply following the launch of mass vaccination, peaking about 8 weeks later, and then falling sharply.
While recent weeks remain subject to revision, it now appears that mortality in the USA peaked during the first week of January and returned to below-normal levels by the end of February:
The drop in mortality over the past 10 weeks corresponds with the waning of the Covid winter season (and the apparent absence of other normal causes of excess Winter mortality):
The narrative that Covid deaths peaked in early January due to "the holidays" does not fit the data: deaths peaked in the central USA before Christmas (infections peaked before Thanksgiving).
In this region, deaths are almost certainly currently below normal.
Remember "flatten the spread"? While the models underlying these graphics were comically inept, I now believe the basic concept will turn out to be correct: the total number of infections can not be reduced, only delayed.
One choice, employed in places like South Dakota, was to do essentially nothing, allowing the virus to spread unmitigated. They have now emerged on the other side with effective seasonally-enhanced herd immunity.
Places like Italy chose the "flatten the spread" route, instituting intermittent lockdowns and ongoing safety theater to keep hospitalizations and deaths at a "manageable" level.
Cases and deaths are on the rise again in Italy, as are lockdowns and protests.
CDC monthly cause of death data is available through the end of August.
Murder increased +24% during the first 8 months of 2020 which implies that, annualized, there were ~4500 additional murders last year in the USA, compared to trend.
Drug overdoses increased +32% during the first year months of 2020; annualized, this implies ~20K excess deaths from OD.
Accidents, excluding motor vehicles, increased +19% in 2020; annualized, this implies ~21K excess deaths.
The singular characteristic of Covid-19 remains heterogeneity of impact.
Regional Heterogeneity: For 3/4 of the global population, Covid has never been a virus of concern; for Europe and the Americas Covid was a major driver of mortality.
Age Heterogeneity: Covid nearly exclusively impacts the elderly, with risk dramatically rising with age. Those under age 50, globally, are at no elevated risk of death from Covid compared to a normal respiratory virus season.
Seasonal Heterogeneity: During the Summer, Covid essentially disappeared from Europe and the temperate regions of the United States. Around the world, Covid has closely followed standard Hope-Simpson seasonal waves.
As most are aware, there has been no flu season this year, with many people mistakenly attributing this to Covid control measures (which work for flu but not covid, apparently).