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13 Apr, 6 tweets, 3 min read
After collapse in January following end of Brexit transition, UK-EU trade recovers slightly in February (& exports rather more than imports) according to new @ONS estimates 👇

ons.gov.uk/economy/nation… Image
Still big declines vs same month a year earlier in February (though smaller declines than in January) Image
More granular data from @DennisNovy 👇

ONS view: "It is too soon to be able to assess to what extent recent trading patterns are short-term or reflect more lasting structural changes."
...it's notable food and live animal exports to the EU are down the most on the average level of previous years in February, suggesting strong Brexit effect for that sector... Image
...& here's the time series showing the Feb bounce back for food & live animal exports to the EU was weaker than for other commodity exports Image

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More from @BenChu_

Ben Chu Profile picture
14 Apr
What’s the evidence for discrimination against Black people in the UK labour market?

A thread...🧵
...Why ask this question now?

Because the government's Commission on Racial and Ethnic Disparities (CRED) told a positive story of “overall convergence story on employment and pay” between minorities, including Black people, and the white majority...2/

gov.uk/government/org…
...But new research this week paints a very different picture of Black youngsters suffering far higher joblessness than whites in the pandemic...3/ bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Read 20 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
14 Apr
What *are* all these emergency coronavirus business loan schemes?

And can we trust their integrity?

An @indypremium explainer 👇

independent.co.uk/independentpre…
...in a nutshell... Image
...Are they corrupted?

There have been many reports of bad loans arising from the schemes, based on estimates from BEIS, OBR & the British Business Bank that between 15-80% will not be repaid...

nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Read 7 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
13 Apr
NEW: Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane to leave the Bank in June and become chief executive of the Royal Society of Arts 👇 @bankofengland @theRSAorg Image
Significant move.

Haldane's got the highest profile of anyone at the Bank perhaps even including Andrew Bailey - & he came close to being appointed Governor himself last year...
....Also he's been most bullish voice on the Monetary Policy Committee about the UK economy's outlook - his departure will likely leave it with a more dovish complexion...
Read 7 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
13 Apr
Is the IMF's proposal of a solidarity tax on the economic winners of the pandemic a good idea?

Some analysis for me for @indypremium 👇

independent.co.uk/independentpre…
TLDR: Depends what the purpose is & how it's implemented.

Not needed for raising money for governments given low interest rates.

& obviously wouldn't help fill structural deficits if it is one-off..
...But if designed well could conceivably help social solidarity through some short-term redistribution.

Negative impact on entrepreneurial incentives probably limited given would be retrospective

& plenty of non-damaging historical precedents.
Read 4 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
23 Mar
Did a million migrants leave the UK during the pandemic? Or was it many fewer?

🛫🚄⛴️

A thread…🧵
You’ve probably read the widely reported estimate from @jdportes and @StrongerInNos for @ESCoEorg in January that as many as 1.3 million people might have left the UK last year ...2/

escoe.ac.uk/estimating-the…
But we’ve had some other estimates from serious analysts.

One from @resfoundation suggests it's closer to 500,000... resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/20…

Another from @LSEnews puts it at low as 235,000...3/ blogsmedia.lse.ac.uk/blogs.dir/123/…
Read 16 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
23 Mar
UK unemployment rate edges down to 5% in three months to January according to ONS

Imagine a year ago if you'd told someone the economy would contract by 10% in 2020 but the official jobless rate would only rise by 1 percentage point - shows the power of furlough
...Though bear in mind that gravity has not kicked in yet in some respects in these figures.

The ONS survey suggests around 300,000 people are not furloughed & not being paid but still *say* they are employed - and are therefore counted as such by the ONS...
Are they *really* still employed?

Or would it be more realistic to assume that many of them (and most are in hospitality) are actually *unemployed*?...

See useful ONS blog here for more on this:
blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/01/29/pai…...
Read 4 tweets

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