What’s the evidence for discrimination against Black people in the UK labour market?
A thread...🧵
A thread...🧵
...Why ask this question now?
Because the government's Commission on Racial and Ethnic Disparities (CRED) told a positive story of “overall convergence story on employment and pay” between minorities, including Black people, and the white majority...2/
gov.uk/government/org…
Because the government's Commission on Racial and Ethnic Disparities (CRED) told a positive story of “overall convergence story on employment and pay” between minorities, including Black people, and the white majority...2/
gov.uk/government/org…
...But new research this week paints a very different picture of Black youngsters suffering far higher joblessness than whites in the pandemic...3/ bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
...So, in that context of mixed messages to the public, it’s worth getting into the figures to see what’s really going on..
The CRED report pointed to evidence the gap in employment rates between the whites and ethnic minorities has decreased over the past 20 years...4/
The CRED report pointed to evidence the gap in employment rates between the whites and ethnic minorities has decreased over the past 20 years...4/
...Yet it failed to note official data showing the unemployment rate of Black people has been consistently more than double the rate of white people over the same period & the most recent figures show a spike to 14% rate for Black people versus 4.5% for whites...5/ 
...And ONS data suggests the unemployment rate of Black people aged 16-24 has almost doubled from 24% in 2019 to 42% at the end of last year.
For whites the rate has increased from 10% to only 12.5% in that time...6/
For whites the rate has increased from 10% to only 12.5% in that time...6/
...So there’s really no room for doubt that Black people suffered from higher unemployment rates than white people in the years *before* the crisis *and* that they were also hit much harder *during* the pandemic, especially the young...7/
...The CRED also said that the ethnic pay gap was at its lowest since 2012.
Yet @alanmanning4 and Rebecca Rose of @CEP_LSE , looking at official labour force data, found a very different picture...8/
personal.lse.ac.uk/manning/work/M…
Yet @alanmanning4 and Rebecca Rose of @CEP_LSE , looking at official labour force data, found a very different picture...8/
personal.lse.ac.uk/manning/work/M…
....They show the average wages of Black women were 4% lower than that of white women in the most recent data, up from 1% in 2000.
For Black men, average pay is 18% lower than that of white men, up from a 15% gap at the turn of the millennium...9/
For Black men, average pay is 18% lower than that of white men, up from a 15% gap at the turn of the millennium...9/
...The new work from @kathleenhenehan of @resfoundation adds to this picture of disparity by showing that black university leavers were also much more likely to be unemployed during the pandemic than their white counterparts...10/
resolutionfoundation.org/publications/u…
resolutionfoundation.org/publications/u…
....This disproportionate hit to Black graduates seems to undermine one of the central arguments of the CRED report, namely that education is the “single most emphatic success story of the British ethnic minority experience”...11/
...For, as @rydermc has noted, if black graduates are suffering considerably worse outcomes than white graduates how much comfort can we really take from the narrowing of white-ethnic educational gaps in recent decades?...12/
...The CRED report does seek to address this by suggesting Black youngsters are more likely to attend lower quality universities and to choose courses which are less likely to enhance their future employment and earnings potential....13/
...To some extent this might well be true.
Yet recent @TheIFS research which looked at earnings for graduates ADJUSTED for the type of university attended *and* subject choice *still* found an earnings premium for white graduates over Black people...14/
ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
Yet recent @TheIFS research which looked at earnings for graduates ADJUSTED for the type of university attended *and* subject choice *still* found an earnings premium for white graduates over Black people...14/
ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
...So the data on economic outcomes is unambiguous.
But that does not, of course, tell us what is driving the divergence.
The CRED report sought to downplay the idea that structural or institutional racism are responsible....15/
But that does not, of course, tell us what is driving the divergence.
The CRED report sought to downplay the idea that structural or institutional racism are responsible....15/
...and said studies showing identically qualified people with Black names were less likely to be called to interview than those with white-sounding names because “these experiments cannot be relied upon to provide clarity on the extent that it happens in everyday life"...16/
...Yet labour market experts say this is bizarre because this is precisely what these studies *are* designed to determine & in the absence of countervailing evidence it's justified to conclude racial stereotyping is playing at least some role in hiring decisions...17/
...And, once in work, survey evidence suggests unfair treatment too.
A 2017 @CIPD survey showed 29% of Black workers felt they hadn't been promoted because of discrimination vs 11% of white workers...18/ cipd.co.uk/Images/address…
A 2017 @CIPD survey showed 29% of Black workers felt they hadn't been promoted because of discrimination vs 11% of white workers...18/ cipd.co.uk/Images/address…
...So: When it comes to its analysis of Black people in the labour market, the unsubstantiated claims and apparent data cherry-picking of the CRED report have undermined its credibility in the eyes of experts...19/
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