Ben Chu Profile picture
23 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
UK unemployment rate edges down to 5% in three months to January according to ONS

Imagine a year ago if you'd told someone the economy would contract by 10% in 2020 but the official jobless rate would only rise by 1 percentage point - shows the power of furlough
...Though bear in mind that gravity has not kicked in yet in some respects in these figures.

The ONS survey suggests around 300,000 people are not furloughed & not being paid but still *say* they are employed - and are therefore counted as such by the ONS...
Are they *really* still employed?

Or would it be more realistic to assume that many of them (and most are in hospitality) are actually *unemployed*?...

See useful ONS blog here for more on this:
blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/01/29/pai…...
BTW data for that chart from table X07, tab 11a here:

ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…

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More from @BenChu_

23 Mar
Did a million migrants leave the UK during the pandemic? Or was it many fewer?

🛫🚄⛴️

A thread…🧵
You’ve probably read the widely reported estimate from @jdportes and @StrongerInNos for @ESCoEorg in January that as many as 1.3 million people might have left the UK last year ...2/

escoe.ac.uk/estimating-the…
But we’ve had some other estimates from serious analysts.

One from @resfoundation suggests it's closer to 500,000... resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/20…

Another from @LSEnews puts it at low as 235,000...3/ blogsmedia.lse.ac.uk/blogs.dir/123/…
Read 16 tweets
16 Mar
Last week, alongside the January trade figures, the @ONS said:

“Despite the slow start for trade in January 2021, data from [its fortnightly Business Insights and Conditions Survey] suggests that importing and exporting began to increase towards the end of January.”...
A bit frustratingly it didn't show precisely which bits of survey data it was referring to in the release.

I've had time to dig around in the spreadsheets and contacted the survey compilers and the answer is...ons.gov.uk/economy/econom…
...That the share of UK firms reporting that they are exporting "as normal" has risen from 40.4% in January to 48.4% in February.

Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting that they have not been able to export at all has fallen from 20.2% to 11.2% 👇...
Read 5 tweets
15 Mar
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey asked about implications of recent increase in Gilt yields on @BBCRadio4

Says: “Consistent with change in economic outlook”

i.e expectations of higher growth, rather than expectations of damaging inflation shock...
Bailey adds:

“Some rise in interest rates which is a reflection of stronger growth in the economy would make the overall debt situation in the long run more sustainable”.
Context: Gilt yields *are* up sharply this year - but note only up to pre-pandemic levels

Suggests normalisation, rather than market inflation panic...
Read 5 tweets
12 Mar
Why *did* UK exports to the EU fall by 40% in January?

📈🚚

A thread..
Explanations from the government
-Covid lockdowns depressing export demand
-Stockpiling by firms ahead of end of Brexit transition
-“Adjustment” to new post-Brexit trade arrangements

...2/
Let’s take each in turn.

Covid lockdowns hitting demand?

Problems: demand for UK goods from *outside* the EU held up...2/ Image
Read 15 tweets
11 Mar
Is Test and Trace really the most wasteful public spending programme ever?

A thread…🧵
The @CommonsPAC report on the value for money and effectiveness of the £37bn Test and Trace programme is pretty damning.

& former top Treasury civil servant @nickmacpherson2 says it “wins the prize for the most wasteful and inept public spending programme of all time”...2/
But is this verdict justified?

Or have there, in fact, been more egregious squanderings of taxpayers’ money in the past?

What could possibly compete?

Well, here’s some contenders...3/
Read 16 tweets
10 Mar
Why is the government killing off its ‘Industrial Strategy’ and why should we care?

A thread...🧵
On the face of it this is something of a puzzle.

Some have suggested this is about “neoliberal” or Thatcherite ideology at work – an aversion to government intervention in the market....2/
Yet this is not a government averse to intervening in the private sector economy, to put it mildly.

There’s the furlough of millions of jobs and billions in state-guaranteed loans...3/
Read 12 tweets

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