Thread by @austincdoctor

Foreign fighters and the trajectory of violence in northern Mozambique.

Happy to see our latest with @EColumbo2019 (@CSISAfrica) in @WarOnTheRocks!
warontherocks.com/2021/04/foreig…

Foreign fighters aren’t new to this conflict. But the attack at #Palma--the latest in a streak of operational successes for ASWJ--& the group’s affiliation with the #IslamicState have elevated the profile of the insurgency, raising concerns of greater FF involvement in the future

What do foreign fighters mean for #ASWJ & the conflict in #CaboDelgado?

BLUF (part 1): Foreign fighters’ influence is likely to be mixed. In the immediate term, foreign recruits offer #ASWJ a reliable means of boosting their battlefield effectiveness & regional prestige.

BLUF (part 2): Down the road, foreign fighters could carry downstream consequences for the group including weakened internal cohesion, reduced support from the local population, & unwieldy mission creep should the group choose to expand its strategic ambitions beyond Cabo Delgado

cc: @NCITE_COE @BtGProjectDC @gwupoe

This piece extends from work that Emilia and I have been doing over the past few years to unpack the complicated topics of foreign fighter activity in Africa and the escalating insurgency in Mozambique.

THE LOOMING INFLUX OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
warontherocks.com/2020/08/the-lo…

THE SECRET TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE INSURGENCY’S SUCCESS
warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-se…

Northern Mozambique at a Crossroads.
csis.org/analysis/north…