A 40m Tue vaccine update:

261k total doses today, around 150% higher than the last day of the Easter BH data.

With all the BH now out of the 7D total, it's just tipped back over 3m, consistent with govt messaging for April supply.

2nd doses and vaxing the 40s next.

1/4
Just on 200k 2nd doses today, so another new high for the 7D total of 2.4m. Over the last week the split has been around 80/20 in favour of second doses.

We remain 3 days ahead of my 11 week target line, so are still keeping to the required pace.

2/4
With bookings opened for the 45-49 cohort, how long will these take to jab? There are around 4.4m in total (UK), but we know around 27% of the 16-49 group have already been jabbed (Eng). That's likely to take the number down to no more than 3m, maybe even less.

3/4
At around 0.7m a week, that'll take around a month at the recent pace of 1st doses. It may be that supply picks up in May which would help of course, but we've got at least another 3 weeks of heavy 2nd doses before a slight easing of those could benefit 1st dose progress.

4/4
HT to @TomRugbyFan for pointing out that PHE's age analysis is more detailed than NHS' weekly report I used, and shows a higher prop'n already vaccinated over 40 than the average below 50, as might be expected.

That's likely to reduce it from 4 wks to 3.

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More from @john_actuary

14 Apr
The latest antibody survey from @ONS has been published, and show that levels have flattened off in England and are falling in the oldest age groups. Similar patterns are seen in W and S, though not in NI.

The overall % in England is 54.9%, compared with 54.7% two weeks ago.
1/5 Image
In England the first sign of a fall in older ages was seen two weeks ago, but is now clearer and extends down to all groups over 65. Younger age groups are continuing to rise.

The fall over the 2 weeks for 80+ is from 86% to 78%, and is 8-9% in the three upper groups.

2/5 Image
Visually you can see it here at the latest point in time, or follow the link to have the interactive version. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
8 Apr
The latest @imperialcollege #REACT study shows a sharp fall since the last report, with infection levels falling by 60% from 0.49% to 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%).

It suggests that within the round the decline has levelled, and puts R at 1.0 for the period.
spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/1004…

1/9
Round 10 (11/3 to 30/3) saw 227 positive tests out of 141k swabs, and the central estimate is now at its lowest since early September. It's slightly below the latest ONS figure for England too, of 0.27% (for the week to 27th March).

2/9
The movement between Rd 9 and 10 suggests an R of 0.84 , but samples collected within the round indicate that the fall has levelled off.

Notice though that there is a wide CI (0.81% to 1.21%), reflecting uncertainty as to whether there is still some fall or even a rise.
3/9
Read 9 tweets
7 Apr
Wed vaccine update:

For the first working day post Easter, a disappointing 266k total doses, only just over half last week's figure, so the 7 day total drops further to just 2.35m, with 2nd doses making up 2/3rds of that figure.

2nd doses and Wales next.

1/4
With only 180k second doses, down a third on last week, the 7D total continues to fall back, now 1.55m.

The two red lines move ever closer, with only 2 days leeway now over the 11 week benchmark with first dose progress.

A national comparison is of interest though...

2/4
HT to @RhonddaBryant for prompting this, but if we compare current 2nd dose totals to the equivalent nearest 1st dose day we see that:-
E is slowest, only on 20th Jan (76 days)
S/NI are both on 26th Jan (70 days)
W is well ahead on 2nd Feb (63 days).

More on Wales next.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
Tue vaccine update: (Spoiler alert - still v slow)

Only 105k total doses today, down 3/4 from last week, and similar falls to those reported yesterday. Hopefully this is the last day of the Easter effect, although we will probably continue to see low 1st dose numbers.

1/4
It's a similar story for 2nd doses, at just 65k, although the fall is not so marked. But there's more urgency here to recover lost ground, to keep a comfortable margin ahead of the 12 week guide (and my prudent 11W benchmark too.)

Next, what's the prospect from now on?

2/4
The SPI-M papers published yesterday show clearly that the govt has reduced its expectation of the roll-out recently, asking the modellers to slow it from 3.2m to 2.7m for England until the end of July. Beyond that there is an even steeper fall, halved from 3.9m to 2m.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
The latest SPI-M modelling by Imperial and Warwick has been published. Both suggest that the current roadmap would result in a third wave of some degree over the summer. The Warwick central scenario is more pessimistic with around 250 deaths pd in Aug.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/4 Image
One interesting chart by Warwick models who might become ill by vaccine status and age. Of note, during the peak, a high proportion is for those who will have had both doses. The assumption of 90% efficacy against death after 2D drives this figure, but that feels low to me.

2/4 Image
Note that vaccine roll-out in England is assumed at 2.7m pw until end of July and 2m thereafter, which suggests the 4m (UK) we saw in March is unlikely to be repeated. This is a substantial reduction from the previous assumption, suggesting a slower roll-out is now expected.
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
16 Mar
The latest ONS data show further proportionate falls in the oldest age groups since mid-Jan, benchmarking against the under 70s.

Age 80+ deaths are now 45% lower, age 70-79 are 37% lower.

What might that mean in terms of lives saved?

1/4
Overall COVID deaths in the latest week were around a third lower than they would have been without the vaccine. The total saved by this estimate is now over 4,000 lives.

It's only an estimate of course, we shall probably never know the exact number.

2/4
The rapid fall in infections remains the greatest influence in the overall reduction in deaths we've seen. But we can now clearly see the relative additional impact on those vaccinated first in the faster falls of those age groups.

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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