Many are asking good questions, so I'll write a short thread.
If you want to know more then follow Hannah (@_HannahRitchie), she has a lot of work coming out on forest transitions.
The tweet-sized summary is that humans – throughout history and today – cut down forests for two big reasons:
Because they need the trees themselves or because they find the forested land to be more valuable when it is not forested.
We might have an interest in the trees for many reasons – to construct houses or ships, as a resource to be turned into paper, or most importantly as a source of energy (where there are trees but no modern energy sources available, fuelwood is a major source of energy).
Second, an interest in the land.
The drive to cut down forests can be due to the interest to make space for settlements or mining, but by far the most important driver of the destruction of forests is to make space for agricultural land, fields and pastures to grow food.
When alternatives are available deforestation can end.
On the first point this can mean access to modern energy sources.
On the second point it can mean more efficient use of land – a shift from meat-based diets to plants or a more intensive use of the agricultural land.
England is not the only place that ended deforestation a long time ago.
Here is the data for China and the US.
Globally however the world has not yet achieved the same.
Deforestation has slowed down a lot in recent decades, but it has not ended.
This thread is more personal than most of the things I share here, but I’m at my limit with Jason Hickel.
I want to explain why I dislike him so much and how we got here.
This is a personal story over several years so it’ll take a bit of time.
Jason Hickel is an anthropologist who wrote many articles and tweets about me, my motivations, and my work in the last couple of years.
I’m sure there are good points among them, where he is right and I’m wrong. But some of his big claims against my work are false.
One such big claim he put forward in an article in The Guardian. It was about my work on global poverty and he claimed that it “couldn’t be more wrong” to say that global poverty has declined.
A new study that asks: How has extreme poverty changed in the last 2 centuries?
The authors estimate poverty in many ways.
Their main innovation is to rely on 'a cost of basic needs approach' based on Bob Allen’s recent work.
👇 thread
The authors write that in 1820 roughly three-quarters of the world "could not afford a tiny space to live, food that would not induce malnutrition, and some minimum heating capacity.”
As you see in the chart above, the huge majority of the world was extremely poor in the past.
Since 1820 the share in extreme poverty across the globe declined to 10%, "the lowest level ever achieved", according to this study.
But of course more recently the share in extreme poverty has unfortunately increased.
The IPCC climate reports rely on scenarios of how the world will change in the coming decades.
This is the IPCC's description of the 'Sustainability Scenario'.
What does the IPCC assume for economic growth here?
Global GDP per capita increases to over $80,000 per person.
Better health and education, an 'emphasis on human well-being', and lower resource and energy intensity –– the future described in that scenario sounds like a future that I'd like to help achieve.
At the same time that scenario is the most optimistic about global CO2 emissions.
This scenario (SSP1) is also a future in which deforestation comes to an end – and instead we see substantial reforestation and much more space for the wildlife on our planet.
The poverty that dominates the public discussion is the 'International Poverty Line'.
It is used by the UN to measure what they call ‘extreme poverty’ and is the relevant poverty definition for the UN’s goal of ‘ending extreme poverty’ by 2030.
2/n
This poverty line is drawn by taking the average poverty lines in 15 of the poorest countries in the world.
As a consequence it is extremely low. It is set at $1.90 per day.
3/n