India, despite success earlier with reducing cases, is now seeing by far the highest levels of transmission from the entire pandemic. New cases reached 199,569 today.

Figures are from yesterday.

Note: No magic stops the pandemic.

1/
Brazil with the P.1 variant out of control continues to at or near all-time highs of Covid deaths.

2/
Argentina has all-time high infections, though death rates are not (yet) at record highs. For such rapid increases in cases, the associated deaths will not occur for a few weeks.

3/
Uruguay, which had been successful in keeping numbers of cases low relative to other American countries, has unfortunately seen a recent surge --- all-time high of both cases and deaths.

4/
Recent outbreaks in South America indicate what happens when a more infectious and deadly variant is allowed to take hold. If the rest of the world does not act rapidly, the same may happen elsewhere. Still unclear how much vaccines will help.

5/
Note: Incorrect Washington Post speculation about reason for earlier reduction of cases. Clearly incorrect given new surge.
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…

Note that new variants in India have not been found responsible for the large number of new cases.
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
Here is article about new variants

"Indian authorities said Covid variants, including the double mutation strain, have not been detected in such large numbers that are sufficient to explain the spike in new infections."

cnbc.com/2021/03/30/dou…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

15 Apr
With the growing power of mass vaccination to reduce transmission, but with vaccine hesitancy and the threat of vaccine evading variants, we should consider mix and match elimination strategies:

1/
What strategies might work combining mass vaccination, mass testing, mass high quality masking, and stay at home restrictions, to achieve local elimination?

2/
Green zones continue to be the way to open up without restrictions, avoiding outbreaks of breakthrough variants. What level of border control or travel restrictions are needed depends on other ongoing precautions and vigilance.

3/
Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete.

What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).

1/
Key the pseudo scientific speculation.

Here is a paper explaining this

Limits to phenomenology.

necsi.edu/the-limits-of-…

2/
What is the alternative? Complexity science of multiscale representations.

Use empirical observations as tests of representations.

This is the scientific method that includes the relationship between empirical and theoretical frameworks.

3/

necsi.edu/why-complexity…
Read 7 tweets
9 Apr
Good news: Cases going down again in Netherlands after peak April 1

Bad: Caught in half way yoyo lockdowns.

Travel bans for South Africa, Central and South America Negative PCR test and 10 day self-quarantine for others.

Why not do it all the way.

1/

government.nl/topics/coronav…
Massachusetts:

Premature school opening increases cases in under age 19 year olds.

Some "officials" trying to make excuses, but transmission in school is real, so is long covid in kids.

2/

patch.com/massachusetts/…
Oceania has done much better than other continents. Cases now growing fast in Asia (see India), deaths in Asia and Latin America.

edition.cnn.com/interactive/20…

3/
Read 5 tweets
7 Apr
Norway is considering and may lead Europe to a ZeroCovid strategy!
"Geographically differentiated: There is now a significant difference between the municipalities in the spread of the epidemic. Most municipalities have no or only a few cases,...

1/
"some municipalities have ongoing outbreaks while some municipalities in central Eastern Norway have a persistently high incidence (which can be tens of times higher than most of the country otherwise).

2/
Read 6 tweets
5 Apr
India: Strong but late action

New cases surged passed 100,000 a day -- over 103,790 new cases on Sunday -- more than the previous peak to be the highest number of daily cases recorded since the pandemic began.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
"The extraordinary rise of the cases in the last few days has alarmed the government and scientific community, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to hold a high level meeting of all concerned ministries and officers of the COVID-19 task force.

2/
"In a tweet, the prime minister said he "reiterated the importance of the five fold strategy of testing, tracing, treatment, COVID-appropriate behaviour, and vaccination as an effective way to fight the global pandemic".

3/
Read 11 tweets
5 Apr
UK Variant in the US leading to much higher reported infections among children.

Children under 10 as well as 10-19.

COVID-19 cases spike in Michigan, fueled by infections among kids

cbsnews.com/news/covid-mic… via @CBSHealth
And in Chicago:

Children now playing 'huge role' in spread of COVID-19 variant, expert says

abc7chicago.com/health/kids-no… via @abc7chicago
It was a mistake to open schools.
Read 4 tweets

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