Thread by @MonicaGandhi9

COVID-19 policy blog today cautiously optimistic about turning point near with states who had increased cases/hospitalizations. "In Michigan, testing positivity rates and reproduction numbers are stabilizing or ...falling in many counties"
policylab.chop.edu/blog/covid-19-…

"Our models now forecast declines in reproduction numbers and case incidence over the next four weeks". And importantly for SCHOOLS: "Infections with the B.1.1.7 variant strain grew most quickly for children at the height of the United Kingdom’s winter surge. That, and ..

"rising infections now in youth, has led some to warn the public.. to consider closing schools again in this current resurgence. But our interpretation is far different, and we would advise schools that are doing well to stay the course"..."There is no evidence that the severity

"of infection has dramatically increased in children. .... Overall, rates in children remain much lower than adults and have been falling". Interestingly that is what we concluded from our analysis & was hoping this could be amplified before this:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1379661…

Very grateful to Policy Lab for concluding same thing regarding schools & children. Here is more analyses from our group using publicly-available datasources:
healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1… and healthdata.gov/Community/COVI…

MI appears to have hit its peak in hospitalizations as the doubling rate has slowed to 16 days, for 2 days in a row, as of 4/14/21- 16% of all inpatient beds are for COVID-19 (and 80% of all inpatient beds occupied total). 28.1% residents vaccinated, michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,…

This surge coming down so much more steeply (2nd part of curve) than winter because of vaccines-this is exactly but exactly what happened in Israel and then vaccines crushed B117:
news.yahoo.com/us-covid-cases…