A profoundly important article in my opinion from @davidzweig in my opinion from @NYMag about why children should not be remote learning in the fall. Key points: 1) NJ Governor saying it will not be option unless "world goes sideways"; 2) Remote learning nymag.com/intelligencer/…
harms well documented; 3) "Study after study has shown that schools tend to have lower case rates than the surrounding community"; 4) Dr. "Vincent Racaniello, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University and author of Principles of Virology, the leading
textbook on the subject, recently concluded, after addressing the mechanisms at work, “I am not worried at all that this virus is going to out-evolve vaccines.'"; 5) Are children at risk? "To put the mortality risk in perspective, the CDC estimates that around 600 children
died of influenza in the 2017–18 season. Through the beginning of April there have been 251 children who died of COVID-19.. among children ages 5-14, 89 have died of COVID-19; in 2018, there were more than 6 times as many deaths by suicide- 596 deaths- in children between10-14"
So, what can we do? "As it stands, whether districts offer remote options next fall may come down to governors. Those issuing decrees, like Governor Murphy, to ban remote learning entirely will settle the issue for local administrators.". Let's hope for leadership soon.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Okay, you know what is interesting? I wrote this piece at the end of January (published early Feb) and it still is going on despite even more data out there on effectiveness & variants; we are not messaging vaccine optimism to decrease vaccine hesitancy leaps.org/want-to-motiva…
1) On 1st point, variants, I hope we have convinced people that our vaccines will still work against variants. I have written threads since January but I hope the simple fact that the man that wrote the textbook on Virology is not worried is enough: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1373506…
1) And the 2nd point, message the end of masks, distancing. Ease more restrictions as vaccines take hold and decouple cases from severe illness. If we want a good metric, please see WaPo- ease mandates based on # of hospitalizations/100K + vax rate washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
Pfizer CEO said boosters may be needed. Unlikely 1) T cell immunity from vax (and Abs) work against variants; 2) T cells last long time- 34 y & counting after measles vax; 3) 1st SARS recovered have T cells 17 yr later; 4) Covid Vax generate memory B cells (lymph node biopsy)
So, to back up each claim (I have longer thread on this) 1) T cell immunity from vax works against variants: I hope you have been persuaded 2) T cells last 34 years and counting after measles vaccine: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3) First SARS pandemic was coronavirus like this one (called SARS-CoV) and it also called severe disease. Lasted 9 months late 2002-2003. Survivors of similar virus SARS have strong T cell immunity 17 years later and counting nature.com/articles/s4158…
COVID-19 policy blog today cautiously optimistic about turning point near with states who had increased cases/hospitalizations. "In Michigan, testing positivity rates and reproduction numbers are stabilizing or ...falling in many counties" policylab.chop.edu/blog/covid-19-…
"Our models now forecast declines in reproduction numbers and case incidence over the next four weeks". And importantly for SCHOOLS: "Infections with the B.1.1.7 variant strain grew most quickly for children at the height of the United Kingdom’s winter surge. That, and ..
"rising infections now in youth, has led some to warn the public.. to consider closing schools again in this current resurgence. But our interpretation is far different, and we would advise schools that are doing well to stay the course"..."There is no evidence that the severity
Rare side effect after J&J vaccine. 6 cases of blood clot called cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) among women between the ages of 18-48, with symptoms between 6-13 days after vaccination. Out of 6.8 million doses given (0.00009%). U.S. pausing statnews.com/2021/04/13/u-s…
222 cases of CVST out of 34 million people with AztraZeneca vaccine reported as well (0.00006%), most cases in women under 55 years. Of note, both J&J vaccine and AZ vaccine are adenovirus vaccines with DNA coding for spike protein inside them. sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/h…
Both extremely rare (0.0000006-0.000009) so please first keep that in mind. Postulated mechanism here - syndrome called vaccination immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT). All patients with low platelets (thrombocytopenia) & unusual clots (thrombosis). nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Sobering article on how there will be a wave of disability & death from other chronic diseases after pandemic (happened in 1918 too). Will be tempting to keep testing asymptomatic after vax, but must turn attention to other health conditions after mass vax medscape.com/viewarticle/94…
White House reports 88,000 overdose deaths during this pandemic (San Francisco has had 3 times as many overdose deaths than those from COVID-19 during pandemic). Another sobering reality of this painful time. healio.com/news/primary-c…
And great article about @DrLeanaWen about the epidemic of obesity in US & its increase in the pandemic: "concerning study in which 42% of people self-reported gaining weight since the pandemic began; average addition was 29 lb; 10% reported gaining >50lb" washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Good news. Vaccines defanging virus. Public data showing reductions in hospitalizations among those who got vax first (older) very prominent. U.S. Total, Last 7 Days Hospital Admissions, 4/9/21, 37,519 vs. 45,003 2/24/21, -17% (7.5k reduction) healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1…
Hospitalizations per case (H/c) ratios:
70+ 4/9/21 9,741 vs. 2/24/21, 17,019: -43% (7.4k reduction)
60-69 4/9/21 7,464 vs. 2/24/21, 9,310: -20% (1.8k reduction)
50-59 4/9/21 7,100 vs. 2/24/21 6,677 or +6% (0.4k increase)
40-49 4/9/21 4,587 vs. 2/24/21 3,975 or +15% (0.6k increase
30-39 4/9/21 3,396 vs. 2/24/21 2,885: +18% (0.5k increase)
18-29 4/9/21 2,363 vs. 2/24/21 2,139:+8% (0.2k increase)
Under 18 4/9/21 843 vs. 2/24/21 1,020: -17% (0.2 reduction)- phew
Unknown, 4/9/21 2,120 vs. 2/24/21 1,919:+10% (0.2 increase)