1/8
Beijing plans to make it easier for migrants to apply for household registration in the cities in which they live and work. This is good news, and the benefits are fairly obvious: by raising the real income of migrant workers — allowing them...
caixinglobal.com/2021-04-14/chi…
Beijing plans to make it easier for migrants to apply for household registration in the cities in which they live and work. This is good news, and the benefits are fairly obvious: by raising the real income of migrant workers — allowing them...
caixinglobal.com/2021-04-14/chi…
2/8
access to the same municipal services and work protection as hukou residents — it will sustainably boost domestic demand
But while this benefit has always been there, it has taken very long for Beijing to reach even this very preliminary step. Why? Because the benefits...
access to the same municipal services and work protection as hukou residents — it will sustainably boost domestic demand
But while this benefit has always been there, it has taken very long for Beijing to reach even this very preliminary step. Why? Because the benefits...
3/8
come with real costs, and until we know how these costs will be allocated, it isn't clear how serious they are about implementing hukou reforms.
To the extent that the welfare of migrant workers improves, the associated costs have to be absorbed by some other sector for...
come with real costs, and until we know how these costs will be allocated, it isn't clear how serious they are about implementing hukou reforms.
To the extent that the welfare of migrant workers improves, the associated costs have to be absorbed by some other sector for...
4/8
many years before they are exceeded by the potential economic benefits. There are basically four ways this can happen.
First, if municipal spending on services is unchanged, the benefits to migrant workers will be paid for by lowering the quality of services to...
many years before they are exceeded by the potential economic benefits. There are basically four ways this can happen.
First, if municipal spending on services is unchanged, the benefits to migrant workers will be paid for by lowering the quality of services to...
5/8
existing residents. This, obviously, would set off substantial political resentment. Second, they can also pay for these services by raising taxes on local residents and businesses. Depending on how these taxes are distributed, they can also set off political...
existing residents. This, obviously, would set off substantial political resentment. Second, they can also pay for these services by raising taxes on local residents and businesses. Depending on how these taxes are distributed, they can also set off political...
6/8
resentment and can reduce economic prospects for these cities, especially cities in the northeast.
Third and fourth, city government can cover the higher costs either by borrowing or by liquidating assets. Given Beijing's concerns over surging debt, especially at...
resentment and can reduce economic prospects for these cities, especially cities in the northeast.
Third and fourth, city government can cover the higher costs either by borrowing or by liquidating assets. Given Beijing's concerns over surging debt, especially at...
7/8
the local-government level, the third option will run up against debt restrictions. The fourth, of course, will meet substantial local political opposition.
I am not saying it is impossible to reform the hukou system, just that while it is easy to explain how they will ...
the local-government level, the third option will run up against debt restrictions. The fourth, of course, will meet substantial local political opposition.
I am not saying it is impossible to reform the hukou system, just that while it is easy to explain how they will ...
8/8
benefit the economy, the key is how the associated costs will be absorbed. Until this is resolved, I continue to be fairly skeptical about hukou reform.
benefit the economy, the key is how the associated costs will be absorbed. Until this is resolved, I continue to be fairly skeptical about hukou reform.
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