Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 31 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest thread where I discuss the upcoming double gameweek with particular focus on triple captaincy:

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(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

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Q: In this section, I cover Salah and Jota.

Salah v Jota (vs Villa)

Shots in the box: 6 v 4
Big chances: 2 v 0
Penalty area touches: 13 v 8

Salah topped the charts for shots in the box in the league this GW. I believe that Jota will remain an elite option for his...

... price but Salah should always be the go-to guy for captaincy, which is likely to be a very important factor now that Liverpool’s run in is very kind and they have been knocked out of the Champions League so rotation won’t be an issue. Salah will be going all out...

... for the Golden Boot too. I believe going without Salah is flirting with danger as his underlying statistics have hit another level. Not only is Salah playing more centrally as the most advanced player, he is top among all players for shots in the box...

... and second for shots in the six-yard box so it’s evident that his shots are coming from promising positions. Get him in your team and see him rack up the points in the weeks to come!

Q: In this section, I discuss Kane, Son and triple captaincy.

I think FPL managers with the triple captain chip should keep it simple. Everton and particularly Southampton are two very obliging defences at the moment so overlooking the likes of Son and Kane has to classify...

... as overthinking in my opinion. After Southampton's loss to West Brom, they are ranked 19th for big chances conceded and 18th for xG conceded away from home this season. Play the chip and hope for the best! That leads to the question, which one of Kane/Son to captain? To...

.. answer this question statistically, I will need more clarification on whether Bale is starting or not as Son's stats in particular are extremely different in terms of goal threat with and without Bale in the side. I was scouring through the Spurs forums and the...

... significant majority of fans expect Bale to miss out again, so I base my analysis on the assumption that Bale will miss out again. I present to you a comparison based on the last six games Son and Kane have started together without Bale:

(read below)

Son v Kane

Mins per shots inside the box: 44.83 v 41.53
Mins per big chance: 76.85 v 135
Mins per xGi: 169.71 v 207.69

While Kane is likely to be the outright favorite for captaincy this GW as he is going for the Golden Boot and is on penalties, the numbers say...

... that it's closer than you might think it is. I still think Kane is the slightly better option despite the extra point that Son gets per goal or clean sheet but if you are chasing a mini league rival who is likely to captain Kane, then there's not much in it so rolling...

... the dice might be worth it. What works in Son’s favor is the astronomical number of chances Saints concede down their right flank, which is likely to be to Son’s benefit. This season, Southampton have conceded 68 chances each through the middle and on their left flank...

... However, that number rises to 109 on their right flank which is a 60% increase on what they concede down the middle or their left. Having said that, no team has conceded more penalties than Southampton since GW20 so Kane’s prospects look equally appealing too – if not...

... better. He has the better odds to score this GW, has the best xG of all players in the league over the past four matches and has already produced as many attacking returns than he has in each of his previous seasons bar one. What’s not to like?

Q: In this section, I analyze Lucas Moura’s numbers.

He has probably gone under the radar, but in recent times Lucas Moura has become a bit of a Mourinho favorite. He has started nine out of the past 10 games for Spurs since GW23 where he has registered six attacking...

... returns with a goal involvement of 35% which is almost on par with Son’s 38%. However, during this spell, Moura’s underlying numbers from a FPL point of view have been fairly mediocre. Moura is creating 1 chance per game and registering 0.6 shots inside the box every game...

... so his statistics are nothing to write home about. He possesses more creative potential than goal threat, which is why I think he can continue to tick over with the odd assist here or there but I don’t see him exploding in the double GW.

Q: In this section, I talk about the Spurs defence.

A lot of FPL managers are talking about Sergio Reguilón for the double GW now that Ben Davies is injured. I still wouldn’t recommend going there as I don’t seem to trust the Spurs defence. Over the past four...

... matches, Spurs are among the bottom three teams for xG conceded and are conceding on average, 2.75 big chances per game. The Newcastle game has put me off the Spurs defence in particular – despite missing...

... the likes of Wilson and Saint Maximin in GW30, Newcastle were able to amass an xG of over 4.

Q: In this section, I discuss Vardy and Iheanacho.

Iheanacho v Vardy

(since GW26)

Shots: 21 v 9
Shots in the box: 14 v 6
Big chances: 7 v 3
xG: 3.3 v 1.3

It’s worth noting that all three of Vardy's big chances came against Sheffield United, while Iheanacho being...

... Leicester's chief goal threat is consistently hogging their big chances at the moment. What’s interesting is that Vardy is top among all players in the league for big chances created over the past four matches while Iheanacho during the same spell is top for big chances...

... Vardy, who now remarkably has just one goal in his previous 16 appearances, seems to have taken up more of a creative role while Iheanacho seems to have taken on the baton for goalscoring.

Q: In this section, I cover West Brom.

I think it’s about time we stop looking at West Brom as whipping boys or pushovers anymore. They have a lot to fight for, and it shows in their performances. Over the past four matches, West Brom are ranked third for xG and fifth...

... for big chances – at the moment, it looks like they can score against anyone. This is not good news for FPL managers who are backing a Leicester or an Aston Villa clean sheet against a rejuvenated West Brom side over the next two GWs. Even defensively, West Brom are...

... nowhere near as poor as they were under Bilić. Since Big Sam has taken over, only Chelsea, Brighton and Man City have a better xG conceded non-penalty than West Brom.

Q: In this section, I analyze West Ham and their upcoming fixture against Newcastle.

I’m aware that this is likely to be the most awaited section of the thread given that it includes my opinion on Jesse Lingard, having previously suggested that he was overperforming over...

... recent weeks. It’s hard to argue against someone who has scored more points than anyone else since his debut. Over the past three matches, he is second only to Salah for shots in the box among midfielders so even though his xG isn’t the best he is doing really well in...

... terms of this metric. Is he a good option? Yes. Is he essential? No.

I fancy Newcastle’s attack to do well here. I tend to look at larger sample sizes to assess over or under performance so over the last six matches, Newcastle are the most underperforming attack...

... in the league in terms of variance between actual and expected goals scored. They are creating a good amount of chances already so the return of Wilson will be a massive boost. West Ham over the past four matches, are second worst for shots in the box conceded while...

... Newcastle during the same spell are top for xG from open play.

Q: In this section, I look at Man United’s assets and their numbers.

I mentioned in my piece a couple of GWs ago that Man United were struggling for a bit of form. At that point, Man United were in the bottom three for big chances over the past six matches. However, over...

... their previous two matches – United seemed to have picked up a bit of form. They have accumulated as many big chances in their previous two matches than they did in their previous six to that combined. I’d keep Bruno Fernandes in my team as I fancy a big win for them...

... against Burnley this week. Mason Greenwood is another player I like – he is averaging one big chance involvement per game over his previous three matches and is only behind Lingard and Salah among midfielders for shots inside the box in this spell. Cavani too looks a...

... good differential now that Martial is likely to be out for the remainder of the season. I don’t see rotation as too big of an issue despite the Europa League as Ole in his interviews has stressed that he wants to finish as close to Man City as possible.

Q: In this section, I assess the Liverpool and Chelsea defence.

My opinion on the Chelsea and Liverpool defence remains the same as it was last week. Keep the faith in their defensive assets despite the fact that they blanked in GW31. Both Chelsea and Liverpool are still...

... among the best three defences in terms of big chances conceded over the past six matches, so their underlying numbers remain very strong. Trent Alexander Arnold delivered a goal this week and I feel more assists are around the corner – only De Bruyne has created more...

... chances than Trent over the past six matches. Trent created six chances against Real Madrid too – more than any of his team-mates.

Q: In this section, I roll the scanner over Arsenal’s attack.

Arsenal (GW 1-14) v Arsenal (GW 15-31)

Shots in the box per game: 6.9 v 8.4
Big chances per game: 1.5 v 1.9
xG per game: 1.1 v 1.6

Arsenal’s win against Chelsea in GW15 seems to be a turning point in their...

... season. Since then, their numbers have only gone one way and that seems to have benefitted Lacazette the most. Lacazette, since GW15 is averaging 5.8 FPL points per game and this is no fluke – only Salah has registered more big chances than him during that time. He’s a...

... very strong option for the run-in, particularly if Arsenal get knocked out of the Europa League. Arsenal’s semi final ties come before GW34 and GW35 so he will be a big rotation risk should Arsenal progress in Europa having cemented himself as Arsenal’s first choice striker.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! Rúben Neves is on penalties and Wolves are second favorites for a clean sheet this GW so he stands a good chance of beating his predicted target of 7.5. Greenwood, Trent and Lacazette are all good options as mentioned in my analysis too.

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Also, in case you didn't know, I do a weekly podcast (#TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. We've started doing it live on Tuesday afternoons/evenings.

Here's this week’s episode: 👇

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