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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

16 Apr

Interesting: to stop Republicans from engaging in delay tactics, Democrats in the Oregon state legislature have struck a deal to relinquish total control over redistricting.

Oregon is slated to gain a sixth House seat in '22, so this could be a big deal. opb.org/article/2021/0…

To be clear, I should have said "exclusive" control over redistricting. There will now be equal numbers of Ds & Rs on redistricting committees, which increases the likelihood Oregon courts will draw the new map.

Why is this such a big deal for Congress in 2022? If a court were drawing a compact, partisan-blind Oregon map, they might end up drawing 3/6 seats that at least *lean* Republican (below).

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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

9 Apr

MARYLAND: there are creative maps, and then there's this work of art, which Dems passed in 2011 to seize a 7D-1R majority. But this time, they're poised go even further, by taking a sledgehammer to Rep. Andy Harris (R)'s #MD01 for an 8D-0R shutout.

In the example below, Harris's #MD01 would go from Trump +20 to Biden +15 (a 35 point swing!), by losing heavily R parts of Cecil/Harford/Carroll counties and picking up Annapolis, Columbia and Laurel. All seven other districts are still Biden +20 or more.

Remarkably, as the above hypothetical shows, Dems could simultaneously make MD Rs extinct at the federal level *and* draw a much cleaner map than the current one. And, they only need 3/5 support in the legislature to override Gov. Larry Hogan (R)'s veto.

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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

7 Apr

LOUISIANA: in 2012, Rs packed Black voters in NOLA & Baton Rouge into one snakelike seat (#LA02 below), and dominate the other five. Dems view it as a blatant gerrymander, and now that they have the governorship, they'll have a seat at the redistricting table.

Louisiana's population is 33% Black, and it's now possible to draw *two* fairly compact Black majority seats: #LA02 based in NOLA & another connecting Baton Rouge w/ Lafayette, Alexandria or even Monroe (#LA05 below). Expect Dems to fight/sue for this additional seat.

However, drawing a second Black majority district would likely also mean a dramatic reconfiguration of #LA05, where Julia Letlow (R) was just elected and enjoys plenty of bipartisan goodwill. This is where the politics could get complicated for Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) & others.

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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

26 Mar

KANSAS: Republicans hold a 3-1 lead in the delegation, but there's serious talk they could draw a 4-0 gerrymander by converting Rep. Sharice Davids (D)'s #KS03 from a double-digit Biden district (left) to a double-district Trump district (right).

However, Kansas Rs face some obstacles to doing so:

1) They'd have to override Gov. Laura Kelly (D)'s veto. That might not be easy given they can't afford many defections and in 2011, when Rs controlled it all, they couldn't even agree on a map and it went to federal court

2) To make #KS03 bright red, Rs would have to split up Wyandotte & Johnson counties. That could mean putting urban Wyandotte (Kansas City) in the rural "Big First" #KS01, an idea that's met huge resistance from KS civic leaders in the past

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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

26 Mar

IOWA: is often held up as the "gold standard" for apolitical redistricting. Every 10 years, it tasks nonpartisan state bureaucrats w/ drafting maps, and counties are kept whole. But, maps are still subject to legislature/governor approval, and this round Rs control both.

Rep. Cindy Axne (D)'s #IA03 is the only D seat left in the state, and it's also IA's fastest-growing. It'll need to shed ~60k people.

In 2020, she won by 1.4% while losing every county except Polk (Des Moines). So, a more Des Moines-centric district would be good news for her.

One possibility: the state panel could propose one compact central Iowa district (Des Moines/Ames) that would have voted for Biden, surrounded by three Trump districts.

But until we have exact census numbers, IA's remap prospects are difficult to game out.

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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

12 Mar

ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority.

Illinois Dems are likely to have three main map objectives:

1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)

The Republican most likely to get eliminated? You guessed it: #IL16 Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R), one of just 10 House Rs to vote for impeachment.

Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.

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