1/ Thread: $AMZN 2020 Shareholder Letter

This is Bezos' last letter as CEO of Amazon. I have been saying this for a while: Buffett and Bezos are two best business writers of our time.

It truly is a fitting letter to end Bezos' tenure. Here are my highlights.
2/ "...more than 7/8ths of the shares, representing $1.4 trillion of wealth creation, are owned by others. Who are they? ...they’re Mary and Larry, who sent me this note out of the blue just as I was sitting down to write this shareholder letter"
3/ One of the best arguments in favor of capitalism is this opportunity for Mary and Larry to participate in the wealth creation machine by an inventive, ambitious, and motivated strangers.

It's not just family office and hedge funds. Let's not forget the "Mary and Larry".
4/ Bezos taught a masterclass how to objectively think about stakeholders and walked us through actual numbers instead of some "feel good" words.

Beyond the shareholders, how did employees, customers, and sellers benefit from the rise of Amazon?
5/ Employees:

"In 2020, employees earned $80 billion, plus another $11 billion to include benefits and various payroll taxes, for a total of $91 billion."
6/ Third-party sellers:

"...in 2020, third-party seller profits from selling on Amazon were between $25 billion and $39 billion, and to be conservative here I’ll go with $25 billion."
7/ Customers: Customers save ~75 hours/year by shopping on AMZN. At $10/hour, that's $630/yr.

At ~200 mn Prime member, AMZN created $126 Bn value for its customers.
8/ AWS: By moving to cloud, direct cost improvements vs on-prem is ~30%. By that assumption, it created $19 Bn value.

When you consider the speed of software development and resultant impact on topline, the total value creation is ~2x the direct cost improvement.
9/ So here's what the tally is for value creation just in *2020*

Shareholders: $21 B
Employees: $91 B
3P Sellers: $25 B
Customers: $164 B

Total: $301 B
10/ “Amazon, as far as I can tell, is a charitable organization being run by elements of the investment community for the benefit of consumers”

That famous quote is true after all. Thankfully, it's NOT a zero-sum game.
11/ Amazon has expanded its focus from being Earth's most customer centric company to "Earth's Best Employer and Earth's Safest Place to Work".

"I’m an inventor. It’s what I enjoy the most and what I do best. It’s where I create the most value."
12/ Should shareholders be concerned about this expanded focus?

Bezos believes it reinforces each other.
13/ Bezos wore the philosopher hat here:

"In what ways does the world pull at you in an attempt to make you normal? How much work does it take to maintain your distinctiveness? To keep alive the thing or things that make you special?"
14/ "Democracies are not normal. Tyranny is the historical norm. If we stopped doing all of the continuous hard work that is needed to maintain our distinctiveness in that regard, we would quickly come into equilibrium with tyranny."
15/ "We are all taught to “be yourself.” What I’m really asking you to do is to embrace and be realistic about how much energy it takes to maintain that distinctiveness. The world wants you to be typical – in a thousand ways, it pulls at you. Don’t let it happen."
16/ "The fairy tale version of “be yourself” is that all the pain stops as soon as you allow your distinctiveness to shine. That version is misleading. Being yourself is worth it, but don’t expect it to be easy or free."
End/ "To all of you: be kind, be original, create more than you consume, and never, never, never let the universe smooth you into your surroundings. It remains Day 1."

Thank you, @JeffBezos.

Full letter: s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/file…

All my twitter threads: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

14 Apr
1/ Thread: Market-Expected Return on Investment (MEROI)

@mjmauboussin and Dan Callahan published their new piece today on MEROI. Regular followers know I'm a big fan of Mauboussin and a big believer of expectations investing approach.

Let's dig into the new piece.
2/ A company's valuation is just sum of two things:

Steady-State Value (SSV) + Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO)

SSV = NOPAT capitalized by Cost of Capital

PVGO depends on three things...
3/
a. the spread between ROIC and Cost of Capital
b. how much a company can invest
c. how long a company can find value-creating opportunities

Calculating SSV is more straight forward, but PVGO is quite tricky and is riddled with many assumptions/forecasts.
Read 14 tweets
7 Apr
1/ Thread: Building business vs practicing craft

@NeckarValue wrote a very thoughtful piece on the contrasting approach required for building business vs practicing craft. While the piece primarily focused on managing money, I was thinking of “MBI Deep Dives” while reading it.
2/ There is certainly a tension between the two.

One of the most common suggestions I have received from my well wishers is I should put out more free content to increase my subscriber base.
3/ Other notable suggestions include doing consulting for hedge funds/long-only PMs, and prepare educational content for beginner/intermediate investors.

These are all solid advices for building a business. Unfortunately, these also have clear trade-offs.
Read 10 tweets
31 Mar
1/8 Thread: $LULU FY 4Q'21 earnings call

LULU had a decent Q4. Topline grew ~24% vs guidance of mid-teens.

Overall, FY'21 revenue grew ~11% even though DTC doubled. Mirror also contributed $170 mn last year.

Key highlights from earnings call.
2/8 In Q4, women's segment grew ~20%, still ahead of men's growth reversing the trend seen in the last few years.

Apparently men shop more in stores vs women, and management expects men's sales to pick up as stores start to operate in full capacity this year.
3/8 LULU cited 1% market share gain in broader adult activeware market in 2020.

International revenue grew 31% in 2020 and estimate just 14% penetration in outside NA market. New EVP in International markets will lean into some key markets.
Read 8 tweets
27 Mar
1/5 Thread: 50 years of Bangladesh

Exactly five decades ago, Bangladesh became an independent nation on this day.

Dubbed as a basket case and despite a famine that followed a few years after the war, Bangladesh mostly surprised the whole world.
2/5 A country with a size of the New York State but the half the population of the US, Bangladesh was supposed to crumble, but it hasn’t.

Bangladesh may have surprised the world, but most Bangladeshis do have a sense of melancholy.
3/5 Many Bangladeshis know someone who they lost during the war. When you pay such a high price to be independent, you want to be compensated with bit of a utopia that makes the sacrifice worth it.

Bangladesh fell far short of that utopia.
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
1/9 Thread: The agony and ecstasy of concentrated portfolio

JPM recently updated their famous paper on the concentrated portfolios. Just like the earlier two, it is a very humbling read.

Given the pick up in volatility, perhaps the danger of concentration is more intuitive now.
2/9 "more than 40% of all companies that were ever in the Russell 3000 Index experienced a “catastrophic stock price loss”, which we define as a 70% decline in price from peak levels which is not recovered."
3/9 Take a minute to read this. If you have been told "stocks always go up", I have news for you.

It's a very hard endeavor we all still choose to do, for better or worse.
Read 9 tweets
20 Mar
1/9 Thread: The dilemma of behavioral biases

Knowing about behavioral biases and knowing *your* biases are very different. Most investors have this implicit assumption that behavioral biases are other people’s problems, and they are somewhat immune from this “disease”.
2/9 Nobody really claims this since it’s not believable, but many carry this implicit assumption.

While discussing with @LibertyRPF recently, we both conceded that we act very differently to a company and its shortcomings depending on whether we own the stock.
3/9 He mentioned how his views on Facebook’s shenanigans had a high correlation to whether he actually owned the stock.

Looking at how many smart people absolutely lambaste Facebook, I have often wondered the same.
Read 9 tweets

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