1/ Thread: Building business vs practicing craft

@NeckarValue wrote a very thoughtful piece on the contrasting approach required for building business vs practicing craft. While the piece primarily focused on managing money, I was thinking of “MBI Deep Dives” while reading it.
2/ There is certainly a tension between the two.

One of the most common suggestions I have received from my well wishers is I should put out more free content to increase my subscriber base.
3/ Other notable suggestions include doing consulting for hedge funds/long-only PMs, and prepare educational content for beginner/intermediate investors.

These are all solid advices for building a business. Unfortunately, these also have clear trade-offs.
4/ While the first two suggestions are complementary to what I am already doing, I have zero interest in building educational content. Even the first two are difficult to pull off.
5/ Being a generalist, it is not a cakewalk for me to pick a business and write a deep dive in a month that would be deemed “worth reading” for a professional investor.

When you write on the internet, your audience doesn’t think whether your piece is worth $10/month.
6/ The question they usually ask is whether it’s worth their time.

The value of people’s time almost always exceeds the price they pay to read a newsletter. Hence, there is an invisible and much higher price point many may subconsciously have in mind.
7/ There is indeed no “free” newsletter.

Subscribing to a newsletter is easy but canceling is even easier (fewer clicks compared to when you sign up).
8/ When I launched MBI Deep Dives, I wanted to be able to do just four things:

Pay rent,
Buy groceries,
Repay student loan EMI, and
save at least $1K/month.

So I figured unless I struggle to reach $4-5K/month after year 1, I will just focus on my craft.
9/ I had a very simple goal in mind: produce the quality of research PMs would see from their own analyst whom they pay $150-250k/year.

If I meet this goal, I had this conviction that this can eventually be very successful even though no idea how big the subscriber base can be.
End/ Thankfully, I have reached the minimum $4-5k requirement, and I can hopefully just stick to my craft.

@NeckarValue piece here. Thanks for writing this.

neckar.substack.com/p/attempting-t…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

31 Mar
1/8 Thread: $LULU FY 4Q'21 earnings call

LULU had a decent Q4. Topline grew ~24% vs guidance of mid-teens.

Overall, FY'21 revenue grew ~11% even though DTC doubled. Mirror also contributed $170 mn last year.

Key highlights from earnings call.
2/8 In Q4, women's segment grew ~20%, still ahead of men's growth reversing the trend seen in the last few years.

Apparently men shop more in stores vs women, and management expects men's sales to pick up as stores start to operate in full capacity this year.
3/8 LULU cited 1% market share gain in broader adult activeware market in 2020.

International revenue grew 31% in 2020 and estimate just 14% penetration in outside NA market. New EVP in International markets will lean into some key markets.
Read 8 tweets
27 Mar
1/5 Thread: 50 years of Bangladesh

Exactly five decades ago, Bangladesh became an independent nation on this day.

Dubbed as a basket case and despite a famine that followed a few years after the war, Bangladesh mostly surprised the whole world.
2/5 A country with a size of the New York State but the half the population of the US, Bangladesh was supposed to crumble, but it hasn’t.

Bangladesh may have surprised the world, but most Bangladeshis do have a sense of melancholy.
3/5 Many Bangladeshis know someone who they lost during the war. When you pay such a high price to be independent, you want to be compensated with bit of a utopia that makes the sacrifice worth it.

Bangladesh fell far short of that utopia.
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
1/9 Thread: The agony and ecstasy of concentrated portfolio

JPM recently updated their famous paper on the concentrated portfolios. Just like the earlier two, it is a very humbling read.

Given the pick up in volatility, perhaps the danger of concentration is more intuitive now.
2/9 "more than 40% of all companies that were ever in the Russell 3000 Index experienced a “catastrophic stock price loss”, which we define as a 70% decline in price from peak levels which is not recovered."
3/9 Take a minute to read this. If you have been told "stocks always go up", I have news for you.

It's a very hard endeavor we all still choose to do, for better or worse.
Read 9 tweets
20 Mar
1/9 Thread: The dilemma of behavioral biases

Knowing about behavioral biases and knowing *your* biases are very different. Most investors have this implicit assumption that behavioral biases are other people’s problems, and they are somewhat immune from this “disease”.
2/9 Nobody really claims this since it’s not believable, but many carry this implicit assumption.

While discussing with @LibertyRPF recently, we both conceded that we act very differently to a company and its shortcomings depending on whether we own the stock.
3/9 He mentioned how his views on Facebook’s shenanigans had a high correlation to whether he actually owned the stock.

Looking at how many smart people absolutely lambaste Facebook, I have often wondered the same.
Read 9 tweets
17 Mar
1/9 Thread: We are all capital allocators

Capital allocation is one of the defining determinants of our personal wealth. Two people with similar current wealth but very different capital allocation skillset/priorities will have vastly different wealth in the long run.
2/9 I see a lot of people who want to be rich as fast as possible. Of course, there is hardly any get rich quick scheme, but let’s consider the possibility we do win some “lottery”.

What happens afterwards?
3/9 Unless we know how to deploy our winnings, we probably won’t remain rich for too long. We obviously cannot expect to win too many "lotteries".

Unfortunately, schools are terrible at teaching it, and even if they did, perhaps most of us would not “learn” it anyway.
Read 9 tweets
14 Mar
1/7 Thread: The ruse of a bull market

One of the challenges I feel is to figure out what I believe on investing in my veins i.e. to what extent my portfolio is basically just the product of what has worked in the last few years vs what my investing philosophy truly is.
2/7 Once you read a few investing books and/or work in the investment management industry, you have a decent idea what people want to hear.

Yes, the Overton window can evolve in terms of what is acceptable or what people want to hear, but we rarely push the window.
3/7 I suspect most young investors, including me (in early 30s), who basically never experienced any sustained recession cultivate an investing philosophy that is derived from mimetic desire and involves a lot of self-deception.
Read 7 tweets

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