1/5
While much of the foreign press announced spectacular Q1 GDP results, Caixin, characteristically, recognized that part of the reported growth simply represented an expansion of the domestic imbalances.
caixinglobal.com/2021-04-16/chi…
While much of the foreign press announced spectacular Q1 GDP results, Caixin, characteristically, recognized that part of the reported growth simply represented an expansion of the domestic imbalances.
caixinglobal.com/2021-04-16/chi…
2/5
Their headline: "China’s Rapid GDP Growth Falls Short of Expectations". As they note, "Both household income and consumption grew slower than GDP."
This matters. While I expect China's reported GDP growth to be strong this year (although not nearly as strong as...
Their headline: "China’s Rapid GDP Growth Falls Short of Expectations". As they note, "Both household income and consumption grew slower than GDP."
This matters. While I expect China's reported GDP growth to be strong this year (although not nearly as strong as...
3/5
the 8.6% consensus), much more important is that it will mostly be what Beijing refers to as "high-quality" growth, which means that consumption, exports and private business investment will collectively outpace GDP growth.
the 8.6% consensus), much more important is that it will mostly be what Beijing refers to as "high-quality" growth, which means that consumption, exports and private business investment will collectively outpace GDP growth.
4/5
This is the kind of growth China urgently needs, and this is not what we got in the first quarter. By now it should be clear that as long as it is willing to allow debt to soar, Beijing can more or less get any GDP growth rate it wants, but there is a difference between...
This is the kind of growth China urgently needs, and this is not what we got in the first quarter. By now it should be clear that as long as it is willing to allow debt to soar, Beijing can more or less get any GDP growth rate it wants, but there is a difference between...
5/5
growth generated by consumption, exports and private business investment, which is sustainable and doesn't require a rising debt burden, and growth generated by FAI in property and infrastructure, which isn't sustainable and requires soaring debt.
growth generated by consumption, exports and private business investment, which is sustainable and doesn't require a rising debt burden, and growth generated by FAI in property and infrastructure, which isn't sustainable and requires soaring debt.
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