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19 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Taiwanese Trumpers: why they are and why they are wrong. Taiwan is safer under Biden but he doesn't inspire fanatical support because he doesn't do blank checks and demagoguery (thread) taipology.substack.com/p/why-biden-is…
In defense of TW Trumpers, it's hard to explain how crazy-making decades of living under "strategic ambiguity" is. Especially when it shades into actual ambiguity. After decades of being in the shadows and afraid...
The Taiwanese was very vulnerable to getting high on US acknowledgement. And Trump did give TW a lot of diplomatic gains...but he was playing Russian roulette with the gun pointed at somebody else's head.
Even though TW is safer with a Biden administration, don't expect fanatical Biden fans. The most we can expect is for TW Trumpers to quietly see the light. Luckily those in charge were always acutely aware of Taiwan's need for BIPARTISAN support (/thread)

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More from @AngelicaOung

Angelica Oung Profile picture
19 Apr
Proof right here that one Otaku with a Facebook Group can change the world. meet Huang Shih-shiu, Taiwan's pro-nuclear Final Boss. Thanks to Huang, the odds are good Taiwan's mothballed 4th nuclear plant will be restarted (thread)
It all started with Fukushima. While everybody else was freaking out, Huang though “huh...huge nuclear disaster and nobody died. Is it really as dangerous as I thought?” In 2013 Huang started the FB group Nuclear Mythbusters. The group made a name for itself with “takedowns”
“We love taking down the anti-nuke groups with their own numbers” said Huang, who crunched a number from a document called “how the 4th nuclear plant is picking your pocket” to calculate the average cost from N4 would be a bargain at NT$1.4/kWh (about a nickel)
Read 16 tweets
Angelica Oung Profile picture
17 Apr
This is the guy to blame if we never find our way off this trail Image
First guy was disposed in a coup by this guy, who wowed the group with his bold "ridge theory". An hour later... Image
Luckily it was quite scenic along the way Image
Read 5 tweets
Angelica Oung Profile picture
16 Apr
Let's see if twitter accountability works. This weekend I want to...

🖋️Write my why Biden > Trump for Taiwan Substack post
🏞️ Go out in Nature
🇫🇷 Study some French
🧘‍♀️Do some serious self-care
🍻 Have beers with some chums

Updates on thread TK throughout the weekend...
🏞️ go out in Nature ☑️ Image
🍻 cocktails with hiking buddies but I also had beer and nuclear talk with @AxolotlAtomique ☑️ Image
Read 6 tweets
Angelica Oung Profile picture
31 Mar
Just folding my laundry while watching a hearing on PRC agression on Taiwan. IDK, feeling cute. Might tweet it as I go.
uscc.gov/hearings/deter…
Mastro: Bad news is China’s probably going to invade no matter what Taipei or Washington does. Silver lining, tho. It’s waiting for the optimal time to attack so short-term provocations short of declaring independence is not as...triggering.(paraphrased)
uscc.gov/sites/default/…
When XI is confident, Mastro thinks he’s going to go for it. More and more increasing confidence. Now more China and American thinkers think China could win in “days not weeks.” (Jaysus!) Western thinker thinks 5 years. Chinese expert told Mastro they’ll be ready in a year.
Read 16 tweets
Angelica Oung Profile picture
31 Mar
The game theory aspect of the China-Taiwan invasion scenario is fascinating. So the US currently maintains strategic ambiguity on whether it will come to Taiwan’s rescue for a lot of reasons. Some say it’s time to drop the strategic ambiguity (thread)
After all, the US has also been pushing for Taiwan to embrace asymmetric defense over trying to go head to head with the Chinese invasion force. But asymmetric only makes sense if you can be sure if the cavalry is on the way. Surely dropping SA will reassure Taipei so it’s good.
But wait! Even if the US is 100% going to back Taiwan in the case of an invasion, SA is still useful. If China is not sure the US is going to help Taiwan out, China would likely start with ‘softer’ measures to try and cow the Taiwanese into capitulating w/o amphibious landing.
Read 6 tweets
Angelica Oung Profile picture
28 Mar
The two grand themes of my twitter crossed today when. I asked my Tinder date about his time during the national service here in Taiwan and how he thinks he'll fare in an invasion: (thread)
"Well, if they call us up, I guess I'll go and be killed very quickly. The problem is, the training in the army isn't the best. There's a lot of moving things back and forth and weeding. And that with me being a paratrooper."
"I don't think I would be able to shoot very straight. I only got to shoot a gun with ammo once. We did do a lot of pull-ups though. Still, I wouldn't run. I'll just show up to get killed I guess."
Read 5 tweets

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