Thread by @gauravsabnis

Lockdown did cause a year long pause because almost everything was closed. This, in terms of data and trends, is the pre pandemic normal. There is always a spike in mass shootings in mid to late April. Combination of Columbine anniversary and Social Contagion.

https://twitter.com/KRCopywriter/status/1384085248061833226

Columbine Effect:
The Virginia Tech shooter back in 2007 very explicitly wrote in his manifesto that he chose the date as a tribute to the Columbine killers who inspired him.

Many of these mass shooters are inspired by other mass shooters and Columbine killers are their deities

Contagion Effect:
Mass shootings, if you look at the data, happen in clumps. A mass shooting that's in the news then nudges some other person contemplating such an action to do it soon after. Be it VaTech, Sandy Hook, Aurora, all were followed by these "aftershocks".

Mass shootings of this regularity are a uniquely American phenomenon. Since there's nothing biological or geographic about killing innocent strangers, there has to be big social contagion combined with the core problem, which is unfettered access to guns and assault rifles.

So these dudes who go on a rampage are still at least somewhat human. They look for validation and online material that justifies their way of thinking. Other mass shooters are their inspiration. It just so happened that the Columbine killers killed on April 20th.

Which inspired more people who explicitly sought to emulate them, to also kill on or around April 20th. Who then inspired others just teetering on the edge. And so almost every year, except for 2020 for obvious reasons, there is a spike in April.

2021 was bound to be worse. A year's pent up killing intentions possibly made worse by the effects of isolation. Plus Trump lost. While stoking anti Chinese anti muslim anti immigrant bigotry. So there's that. And this is a very sunny spring following a very cold snowy winter.

This was an interesting data trend I observed a few years ago when I was playing around with some numbers a researcher shared. Hypothesis being, harsh winters means worse seasonal affective effects than usual. Warm sunny spring means lots of happy people around suddenly.

Seems to somehow act like an extra trigger for these people who decide that killing strangers or people from certain communities is what they want their life to end with. The extra intense depression of a harsh winter (it's a real thing!) followed by seeing happy "normies"spring.