A quick thread on today's announcement of the Government of India (GoI) to open up Covid vaccination to those above 18 years of age from May 1st. The fine print is dangerous. The decision comes with a considerable liberalisation of the pricing of vaccines. 1/n ...
The GoI has essentially given freedom to the vaccine makers to sell 50% of their vaccines to the States "in the open market". At what price? This press note says: "private vaccination providers shall transparently declare their self-set vaccination price." 2/n ...
This manufacturer-determined price will most probably be the base price from which States will have to bid to procure vaccines. This is just what the private vaccine firms were asking the GoI to do. It allows them to make super profits in the midst of the pandemic. 3/n ...
Basically, the GoI has withdrawn itself from any commitment to ensure vaccines to the States. It created a vaccine shortage over the last 4 months, but is now passing the buck to the States by asking them to purchase the vaccines directly from the manufacturers. 4/n ...
So, if there is a shortage of vaccines after May 1st, as everyone will flock the vaccination centres, the GoI will simply say that the States are responsible and that they failed to procure enough vaccines from the vaccine companies. 5/n ...
The role of GoI will now be limited to the vaccination of the first 30 crore vulnerable sections, who will get the vaccine free. Rest will have to pay a substantially higher price than at present. There is no ceiling set on the price for vaccines. 6/n ...
This is a highly regressive policy, which needs to be opposed by the States. It will inflict a serious cash burden on the State finances. It will lead to a rise in vaccine prices. This will exclude millions from voluntarily coming forward to vaccinate themselves. 7/n ...
It will allow the GoI to use the manufacturer-State government bargaining to hide its failures in planning for vaccines. It is essentially a gift to the private vaccine makers, with the attendant financial burden seamlessly passed on to the citizens. n/n
A thread in response to different views expressed against my tweets and articles on Covid #vaccines. Many were abuses; I ignore them. I try to take the reasonable questions and try to answer them here. One question and one answer in each tweet below. Its a long thread, btw! 1/n
Q1) Why should India give vaccines free? Who gives vaccines free?
A1) Most countries are giving Covid vaccines free to their citizens. I shall give examples of some major countries, including United States, United Kingdom, China, Germany and France. See screen shots below. 2/n
...A1...) What about United States? It is free. 3/n
Phew! The last day of “Project Evade”. The govt made 3 things clear: one, it doesn’t intend to spend for farmers and workers; two, instead of borrowing/monetising, it prefers to disinvest & raise money; and three, it sees the crisis as an opportunity to deepen reforms. 1/n […]
World over, out of about $7.5 trillion announced by different govts, about $3 trillion (40%) are “spending and revenue measures” and about $4.5 trillion (60%) are “loans, equity injections and guarantees”. India is a major exception to this global trend. 2/n [...]
If we take a very liberal view, not more than Rs 1.2 lakh crore out of Rs 20 lakh crore in India is direct spending. All the rest are measures to increase liquidity or bank credit. Even if we include some other indirect steps, the total won’t exceed Rs 1.5 lakh crore. 3/n [...]
Today’s Part 4 of ‘Project Evade” by the FM was classic. It was salutary, because it required enormous amounts of guts and audacity to face the people of India on live TV and dish out such extraordinary nonsense, at a time when 100s of people are dying of hunger. 1/n […]
FM started by claiming that govt will link all industrial land banks with GIS tags! Wow. Then she said industrial parks will be ranked by 2020-21. Hello! Ranking of industrial parks was done in 2018 itself, isn’t it? (bit.ly/3g4utcC) Sorry, no questions asked. 2/n […]
Then came the announcements. She said commercial mining is being introduced outside the public sector. One wonders why it is said now. This was already passed as a law in the Parliament in March 2020 itself: the Mineral Laws (Amendment) Bill. See bit.ly/2X31w7X. 3/n
<thread> Today’s presser of the FM was on agriculture. Farmers are struggling due to no markets & lower prices. They expected a cash handout (increase of payment or front-loading 2nd installment of PM-Kisan) or higher MSP or a debt relief. But the FM had other plans! 1/n […]
FM first spoke of a Rs 1 lakh crore financing facility for funding aggregators & FPOs to improve farm-gate infrastructure. This is most likely a loan-based scheme through banks. We already have “Operation Greens” for this in TOP crops. No budget outgo likely. Details awaited. 2/n
FM then set aside Rs 10,000 crore for micro food enterprise clusters. This again is already represented under multiple schemes/heads in the budget. Allocation may slightly rise after today. Still, a major part of this is likely to be loans. Small, but welcome. 3/n […]
Today's Part 2 of "Project Evade" by the FM was truly a damp squib. The first 40 minutes was just a dry narration of claims. The dates here were carefully selected where the public has few ways of independently cross-verifying the claims. 1/n
Again, the extent of fiscal obligation was kept bare minimum with the banking system being used to the hilt to make big claims. Let us, in this thread, examine the claims and announcements of today. 2/n
The FM said that loans worth Rs 86,600 crore were provided to agriculture in March-April 2020. Assuming that 25% of agril loans are given in March-April (2007 estimates), Rs 3 lakh crore was supplied in March-April 2019. 3/n
Today's so-called "package" announced by the FM was Part 1 of "Project Evade". It is clear that the govt has no intention to spend beyond a basic minimum on the fiscal side. For the rest, it plans to rely on the deposit resources of banks. 1/n
Not to say that debt relief measures & liquidity are not important, but they should not become a substitute for fiscal measures. The govt's advisor was saying, quoting Deng Xiaoping(!), that as long as the cat catches the mice, it doesn't matter. It matters. 2/n
More debt creation without regard for debt sustainability or the financial health of banks may turn out to be counterproductive in the medium-term. Also, trying to inject more credit when demand is at its nadir may not turn anything around on the ground 3/n ...