More encouraging news on Minnesota’s #COVID19 outbreak. Average positivity rate has now fallen for four straight days, and is about where this metric was two weeks ago. 
Last Monday saw a week-over-week drop in the number of new #COVID19 cases found by that day’s tests for the first time in six weeks.
Even hospitalization metrics look like they might have peaked.
Now, none of this good news is a guarantee that cases and hospitalizations will continue to decline in future days. But every day of decline gives more weight to the hypothesis that MN has durably turned a corner on its #COVID19 wave.
The tentative good news on the #COVID19 front is matched by continued retreats on the vaccination front. The number of doses administered is falling, however you measure it — new first doses, newly completed vaccinations, total doses administered.
This drop in vaccination in Minnesota is driven ENTIRELY by Johnson & Johnson vaccines, which were paused last week due to rare possible side effects. Pfizer & Moderna are both up. (J&J hasn’t hit 0 yet because of reporting delays & the 7-day average.)
This fall in J&J vaccinations isn’t surprising. Even before the pause, Minnesota was on track to see its J&J allocation plummet. We can expect to see falling vaccination numbers continue for some time, based on this limited supply.
Some people have suggested that vaccination rate is falling because demand is falling, b/c most people who really want a shot already have one.
There may be some of that, & demand will eventually be the dominant factor, but I don’t see it yet. No fall in % of doses given.
There may be some of that, & demand will eventually be the dominant factor, but I don’t see it yet. No fall in % of doses given.
Overall, more than half of MN adults, and around 40% of the MN population, have at least one dose. About 36% of adults/29% of Minnesota are fully vaccinated.
85% of MN seniors, 57% of adults 50-64, 40% of adults under 50, and 17% of 16- and 17-year-olds have at least one dose:
In fact, 16- and 17-year-olds have been the age group with the fastest vaccination growth over the past week. A lot of pent-up demand there!
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