1. The number of virus "Variants"is a function of time.
This is a biological & virological phenomenon.
A variant is a virus that has genetic sequences with enough mutations to make them distinct and detectable by genotypic testing.
Viral mutations are the norm, not the exception
This is a biological & virological phenomenon.
A variant is a virus that has genetic sequences with enough mutations to make them distinct and detectable by genotypic testing.
Viral mutations are the norm, not the exception
2. Viruses are the most primitive of semi-living particles. In fact many scientists debate over whether they are living or not.
They lack sophisticated genetic machinery and are comprised of very rudimentary genetic sequences.
Some contain RNA others contain DNA.
They lack sophisticated genetic machinery and are comprised of very rudimentary genetic sequences.
Some contain RNA others contain DNA.
3. Because viruses lack their own cellular machinery to manufacture RNA or DNA, they need to hijack the host cell's manufacturing apparatus..
When viruses multiply, they replicate the genetic material but lack proof reading.
When viruses multiply, they replicate the genetic material but lack proof reading.
4. Therefore any errors introduced during virus replication (which has to occur within the host) are not proofread by the virus. These are the so-called mutations. For any given virus, these mutations occur all the time.
5. Some mutations are too small to be noticed, some so large that they render the virus non-infectious to their hosts.
At any given time any given number of mutations can be happening.
At any given time any given number of mutations can be happening.
6. In the end the confluence of mutations that allow the virus to remain pathogenic, continue to be confer infectiousness to the host and not render the virus entirely blighted are what determines the range of mutagenicity.
7. It follows logic then that during the pandemic when millions or hundreds of millions of people are infected, more mutations are occurring than when there isn't a pandemic.
More multiplication equals more mutation. This is not complicated.
More multiplication equals more mutation. This is not complicated.
8. Typically many mutations that preserve the pathogenicity of the virus also decrease the capacity of the virus to multiply.
This concept in virology is called
"reduced fitness"
This concept in virology is called
"reduced fitness"
9. What this means is that the more mutant a virus, the less likely it is to be able to replicate at the same rate as the original one.
The original strain of the virus is typically called "wild type"
The original strain of the virus is typically called "wild type"
10. Given uncontrolled spread of infection, most infections will occur with the wild type virus because wild type is the virus best able to replicate and the one most able to propagate.
Again not a complicated concept.
Again not a complicated concept.
11. However, once there is an effective therapeutic treatment, either antivirals, vaccine, naturally immunity or what have you, the wild type virus no longer has the same replicative advantage as it previously did.
12. It is then that these mutants gain the upper hand. They may not be able to multiply as well, but the fact that they have even a slight advantage over the wild type allows them to emerge over time in any given population.
13. From an evolutionary standpoint the virus has only one job, to preserve its species and to propagate itself. It does everything possible to not go extinct. Mutations are nature's way of making sure viruses don't go completely extinct.
14. Which means in any population where infection has been established for a long time, selection pressure disfavors wild type and favors mutations purely because of the survival advantage it affords the species.
This isn't complicated either.
This isn't complicated either.
15. Which means any pandemic that has lasted for a year, has now enabled mass vaccination and effective therapeutics is ripe for multiple different mutations and mutants.
16. The notion that we need more lockdowns is plainly idiotic and antithetical to the very basic tenets of virology and epidemiology.
Herd immunity broadly confers protection the occasional escape mutation will continue to occur one way or the other.
Herd immunity broadly confers protection the occasional escape mutation will continue to occur one way or the other.
17. In fact flu viruses mutate so often that the seasonal flu vaccine which is based on the last year's circulating genotype is hardly ever more efficacious than 50%.
18. And most people who used to get admitted to the hospital with severe flu (back when flu was a thing) were vaccinated with the flu vaccine.
19. Nobody ever said "hey we got flu variants, let's shut down the entire world for a year, wear double masks and listen to what the garden gnome has to say even though he's been wrong every single time"
20. The reason why nothing we've done has worked is because we put a group of inveigling power hungry despots in charge of controlling the smallest infectious particle there is and are are offended and surprised to learn that they're trying to control us instead.
-Fin
-Fin
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