1/x Everybody Panic!!! The number of people coming out & claiming to be ‘Fully hedged’ AFTER today is surprising... This market has been in desperate need of a sentiment reset and a healthy correction in price & time & it seems to be getting Just that.Though we are still 50%
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1384028620423794694
2/x short after monetizing the move down in IWM, we are still long calendars in SPX, long dispersión, & long 3/30 event Vol, while eyeing a couple of days of digestion & increasingly shifting our put calendar exposure to the call side... As stated earlier today, a🪟of weakness
3/x opened 4/12.4140-4175 was hit, as predicted & over a week later, we’re @4120. This is what correction in time/$👀like. Whether we get more $ correction remains to be👀. But remember a🪟is just a🪟. A👸/🦥vacay doesn’t push market⬇️, it removes support & creates vulnerability
4/x as much as we are still rooting for a break of the 20 day in this🪟& are hyper-aware of the tail fragility in this market, if it were to break, particularly while Vanna’s away on vacay, we recognize that it is important to not to be dogmatic. Price is truth. & Gary 🦍 has
5/x shown that he is clearly sitting on a 🚣♀️load of 🍌’s until 3/23 & w/ST skew soft as well, it will be hard for this market to decline in any meaningful way, before then, & w/ 👸& 🦥’s vacation ending on 3/28 w/ the Fed meeting & Biden’s SOTU, Time is not 🐻’s friend. The ⏰is
6/x ticking. Ultimately momentum has been strong & shows every sign of strong continued acceleration should we manage to emerge from this🪟unscathed. This is the🐻opportunity to carpe diem. If they can’t, what that tells us about current flows is very telling & must be respected.
7/x w/ index skew & IVol cheap, we’re increasingly shifting from short hard deltas to low cost OTM collars in 3/30 that we’re adding long delta to hedge incrementally flatter every day, looking to eventually build a leveraged long delta position with imbedded convexity for
8/x the increasingly likely next leg up. Regardless, the time has come for⚠️& the tail w/a break below the 20 day is not only real, but after a 1 year rally of over 90%, has the potential to be devastating...the picture is becoming clearer but we will know the truth soon enough.
9/x every day the odds of a rally grows. Watch the 🕰. watch NDX for leadership. Listen closely to Fed speakers & 👀 rates like a 🦅.👂to Biden surrogates for clues re: coming SOTU initiatives, particularly regarding antitrust & China🇨🇳, & most importantly watch Gary. Rising Ivol
10/x if he becomes unFED w/ Fed commentary &/or a break of the 20 day, look out below! He is the only thing holding the market together in this🪟& Tail Fragility continues to be high despite local iVol being dramatically oversupplied. w/skew cheap, it continues to be a no🧠‘er to
11/11 own convexity funded w/ local ivol. Good luck!🍀 🍀 🍀
4/28
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