1/x This will be a short daily 🥐...everything from Wed still applies 👇. 🪟of weakness opened 4/12 w/ 4140 *** hit. & Here we are @ 4140 after almost 2 weeks! all things considered, this is a victory for the bulls, considering👸& 🦥 are @ 🏖, & it is a tribute to the power of a
2/x well FED Gary🦍. This is a textbook correction in⏰. But The🪟’s still open. Whether we get more of a price correction remains to be👀.Remember a🪟is just a🪟.A👸/🦥vacay doesn’t push market⬇️, it removes support & creates vulnerability..but time is running out for the 🐻’s.
3/x A decline to the 20 day for a last minute game of🐔to shake the longs would be an ideal Mon- Wed activity, but unless someone can manage to take away Gary’s🍌🍌 & make him hangry enough to lose control/ start breaking things following the Fed meeting & SoTU...I would expect
4/x more & more well fed Gary 🦍. Which will be hard to battle. Fed meetings are usually the most bullish days of the year unless there is some kind of a surprise policy announcement. Often if a market decline is to happen, it happens the next day. This lines up perfectly w/ the
5/x Biden SOTU that 3/28 evening, so I’d look to own 4/30 IVol for the event to be short pre-event, which despite expansion the last several days,still represents value considering the policy clarity that’ll likely come from the speech as it relates to such critical issues as TAX
6/x (as we got some info today), China 🇨🇳 policy, potential antitrust action, the $2 trillion infrastructure plan, Russia sanctions, Iran nuclear policy, climate, & maybe even crypto... dispersion is still on the menu as well given the likely sector specific moves that will come
7/x off of policy clarity. As we move closer to May, tax selling is a major concern, especially now that there is an added incentive to lock in LT cap gains before rates go up. Watch this market carefully on any decline below the 20 day. Otherwise, the move is to keep covering
8/8 our shorts opportunistically a little more each day w/ the strong intermediate term momentum & well FED Gary preparing for a likely rally to new ATH coming when Vanna returns. That said, Tail Fragility continues to be high despite local iVol being dramatically oversupplied.
9/9 And w/the 20 day not far and skew cheap, it continues to be a no🧠‘er to own the wings. W/Gary oversupplied today is bound to be slow. Good luck!!!🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

21 Apr
1/x Everybody Panic!!! The number of people coming out & claiming to be ‘Fully hedged’ AFTER today is surprising... This market has been in desperate need of a sentiment reset and a healthy correction in price & time & it seems to be getting Just that.Though we are still 50%
2/x short after monetizing the move down in IWM, we are still long calendars in SPX, long dispersión, & long 3/30 event Vol, while eyeing a couple of days of digestion & increasingly shifting our put calendar exposure to the call side... As stated earlier today, a🪟of weakness
3/x opened 4/12.4140-4175 was hit, as predicted & over a week later, we’re @4120. This is what correction in time/$👀like. Whether we get more $ correction remains to be👀. But remember a🪟is just a🪟. A👸/🦥vacay doesn’t push market⬇️, it removes support & creates vulnerability
Read 12 tweets
19 Apr
1/x I learned a loooong time ago to never fight a well FED Gary 🦍...Despite a long list of reasons to be 🐻’ish, including: 1)Vanna 👸 & Charm 🦥 away @ the 🏖 for an extended vacation, 2) sentiment & positioning historically stretched by almost every metric, 3) a VVIX/VIX ratio
2/x blinking 🚨, 4) earnings season after a massive run calling for what should be some natural profit taking, 5)an imminent Tax season & 1 year anniversary of longs also calling for profit taking selling flows, 6)seasonality waning as we head towards May, 7) & probably most
3/x importantly, a Fed that is more likely than expected to begin walking back its ultra loose rhetoric, as we continue to see upside surprises in NFP, earnings, & a dramatic acceleration in vaccination + a reopening of the domestic economy. But despite all of these, the SPX
Read 12 tweets
16 Apr
1/x Just as Gary’s 🦍positioning reflexively effects the outcome of his bets, I’ve become convinced that my calls are reflexively beginning to effect the outcomes of my predictions... so, I’m gonna keep it🤫tonight. There are simply too many Care Bears crowding my magical 🌈.
2/x Given the trajectory, NDX leadership, strong seasonality, all the late quant flows tied to declining Vol which still have a ways to go, Gary’s dramatic oversupply & the zookeepers still steady supply of🍌’s despite the overwhelming size of the rally relative to IVols,there’s
3/x every reason to believe that all these factors paired w/the fact that now savvy 🥐’s are joining simple minded 🌷’s as 🐻’s, that whatever likely correction we get here, will probably end up only amounting to another choppy short-lived correction in time, Supported over the
Read 5 tweets
14 Apr
1/x per usual, Wed’s update’ll be brief...Vanna’s👸gone. But Gary’s🦍@ the top of his game. & although our🦥is no👸, he’s charming enough when Gary’s well FED, & so, as predicted, here we are @ our projected 4140@ our long projected🪟, & WofFortune is crushing the ratings... But
2/x remember it’s never an easy ride. we’re likely to get some more mowing of the🌷’s & signs of accelerated forced call squeezes across the space before it’s all said & done... If this call squeeze isn’t able to drop kick the🍌🍌 out of Gary’s grasp in the next 1.5 weeks, it’ll
3/x be hard to loosen the grip & turn the tide. Regardless, @ this juncture, gamma is simply too cheap in this🪟& as stated, now that we have hit our objective, it’s time to START accumulating on the upside, gradually replacing stock w/calls or building a delta neutral, short
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
1/x Here we are @ 4/12. The rally to ATH has transpired as predicted & the VIX has tumbled to 13 month lows. The🪟of weakness has opened & this is where things start to get weird...it’s NEVER straightforward, & imagining how this market will manage to tumble through the🪟begins
2/x to become fairly hard to pinpoint. The truth is, that despite Vanna’s👸part time sched this week & charm’s🦥fading strength as the week goes on, Gary’s still very much in control until the🍌’s get taken away. Any rally to our 4140 *** objective should begin the process
3/x of loosening his grip...& any rally above 4140 toward a 420 spy before 4/20 should only serve to create greater potential energy for a correction in the month to come. Skew in the indices has been shockingly soft given how low IVol has become, NTM particularly in the front of
Read 13 tweets
9 Apr
1/x As we approach our long awaited🪟. It’s important to remember it’s NEVER an Easy Ride...Everything from the last 2 posts this week👇still applies, BUT...The strength of the NDX, the hugging & stretching of the 2 stdev of the 20 day, in the face of 46k lbs of JuneQ 4115 🍌’s
2/x from last week, the overextended retail sentiment & RSI’s, tells us the rally is hungry for more. We still expect the market to squeeze to ~3140 by Mon 4/12. @ 3140 is where things get interesting. w/the🪟open, this is where the market will begin to play🐔to shake the fragile
3/x paper hands & squeeze the last remaining 🌷‘s... So many are looking for this 3140 area to be a potential🔝, that my SPY-dey sense tells me we’ll potentially get a unimaginable stretch to a well deserved 420 SPY sometime before 4/20. My current est sees a potential 🎯
Read 9 tweets

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