Weekly French Covid thread
The UK-variant-led 3rd wave of Covid in France seems to have crested – or reached a high plateau. Figures are no longer rising; nor are they falling v. fast.
Macron’s dilemma. Can he go ahead with the easing of restrictions promised for mid-May? 1/10
The health defence council is meeting this morning. Health minister Oliver Véran favours lifting or easing the present “lockdown lite” region by region. The figures vary hugely - from an incidence rate in the 500’s/600’s in the Paris area to only 89.5 in W. Brittany. 2/10
Overall, the virus is subsiding slowly – v. slowly in Paris area, the black spot
The national incidence rate - cases per 100,000 people/ 7 days – is 337.4. It was 342.4 last week and 405 a week earlier. Seine Saint Denis has eased from 680. 2 to 656.5. Paris 516.9 to 512.4
3/10
The daily average of cases, muddled recently by reporting glitches/Easter, was stable at 33,422 in 7 days to last night. Nicolas Berrod’s graph shows a slightly different figure up to Monday but illustrates the bumpy plateau France has reached. 4/10
Deaths in the last week have averaged 296.2 a day, compared 315 last week. Acute care has been relatively stable (at a very high level) – 5,984 beds occupied yesterday compared to 5,902 a week ago. Hospital beds occupied rose from 30,868 to 31,086.
5/10

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More from @john_lichfield

21 Apr
The vax French rollout continues apace - 418,000 shots yesterday. First jabs have now almost reached 13m but the need for 2nd jabs is slowing them a little. Unless it speeds up, France will fall just short of its 20m 1st jabs target for 15 May. 6/10

Epidemiologists warn that there will be no rapid descent from the 3rd wave, unlike the collapse of the 1st wave a year ago. The official “alert level” is 5,000 new cases a day. The present level is over 30,000. With schools re-opening next week, no rapid change is expected. 7/10
In those circumstances can Macron keep his conditional promise to ease restrictions – opening restaurant terraces etc – in just over 3 weeks’ time? The political pressure to do so (with presidential elections exactly a year away) is enormous. But he can’t afford a mistake. 8/10
Read 6 tweets
17 Apr
Weekly French vaccination thread.
Your booster dose of good news…or reasonably good news, with some annoying worries and problems.
The French vaccine roll-out has accelerated again. Almost 2.5m 1st and 2nd doses were given in 7 days, compared to just under 2m last week. 1/ 12
On Thursday night France exceeded its 10m first doses target for 15 April by almost 2m.
A comparison with the UK is interesting.
Current 7 day averages of 1st and 2nd jabs given in 24 hours:
UK: 437,317.
France: 357,120.
2/12
It’s not a contest but it was made so by much of the UK media
Mail/Express etc please note France/EU are now vaxxing at a high rate. Why? Initial problems have been resolved/Pfizer doses are plentiful
Why is UK slower than it was? AZ is failing UK just as it failed the EU. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
14 Apr
Weekly French Covid thread
There is good news on the key stats which suggest that the third wave has reached a plateau and may have peaked. On the other had France is about to pass – today or tomorrow – the grim milestone of 100,000 official C19 deaths since March last year 1/10
Other bad news. There are growing fears about the possible impact of the Brazilian variant which appears to be more aggressive and more damaging to younger people. As things stand the Braz. AND SA variants are 4.2% of French cases. Flights from Brazil have been suspended. 2/10
The French vax programme continues to flourish (largely unremarked by UK media). There were 453,689 injections yesterday – a new Tues record – including 309,704 1st shots. The target was 10m 1st jabs by April 15. France was at 11.3m last night and could hit 12m tomorrow.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
10 Apr
Weekly French vaccination thread.
The French roll-out, still described as “stuttering” or “glacial” in UK media (and even some Fr media) continues to boom. Over 500,000 doses (1st/ 2nd) were given yesterday, a record. Fr should exceed its 10m 1st jabs 15 April target by 2m.
1/12
There are still problems, however.
I was premature last week to say there was NO widespread anti-AstraZeneca feeling in France. Resistance to AZ because of the clot issue meant use fell to 61% this week, with 1.7m doses now in stock. 2/12
Weekend stats also continue to be poor – despite Macron’s promise to vax morning, noon and night. Around 300,000 jabs in 3 days over Easter. To hit its 15 May target of 20m 1st shots, France has to jump from 214,000 to 266,000 a day – doable but more weekend jabs would help
3/12
Read 12 tweets
7 Apr
Weekly French Covid Thread
Pr. Macron’s gamble last week on a 4-week nationwide lockdown light – a gamble on top of a gamble – calls for signs of a weakening of the 3rd wave of the pandemic by mid-April. The stats so far are vaguely encouraging but hard to read conclusively.
1/8
There has been a definite slowing but not yet a peaking, of the average number of daily cases (see @Nicolasberrod graph below) Deaths have fallen back again, after rising last week. The hospital and acute care populations continue to rise rapidly. 2/8
On the other strand of Macron’s gamble – the acceleration of the vaccine roll-out – the figures look v. good (despite a falling off over the 3-day Easter weekend). France should hit its April 15 target of 10m first vaccination by tomorrow or Friday, one week early. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
3 Apr
Weekly French vaccination thread.
Headline: “France overtakes UK in daily rate of first vax doses shock….”
Yes, it's true, at least over the last few days.
Context is needed, however. Just as the Daily Mail or Daily Express always provide don’t they? 1/12
If you include 1st and 2nd doses, the UK is still well ahead of France, averaging over 500,000 jabs a day, according to official UKG figures.
However, France in the last 4 days has excelled itself with over 1.4m total doses (350,000 a day.) and 1.1m 1st jabs (275,000 a day). 2/12
In terms of 1st doses alone, France HAS overtaken Britain, which has been averaging 235,000 a day, falling to 153,823 on 1 April.
This fall in the UKG was anticipated as hundreds of thousands of 2nd jabs came due. Britain is now “2nd-jabbing” at around 270,000 a day.
3/12
Read 12 tweets

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