Some curiosities in the Scottish government’s approach to education, international comparisons...and picking fights with teachers...
(1/13)
1️⃣ Withdrawal from international comparisons

ScotGov has withdrawn from two international education surveys:

➡️Trends in International Mathematics & Science Study (Timss),

➡️ Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS)
(2/13)
PISA is last of big three Scotland still participated in.

2019 PISA reveals declining Scottish performance in maths and science.
(3/13)
So why withdrawal from Timss & PIRLS)?

Scottish Ed Sec John Swinney blames a need to ‘save cash’.
(4/13)
Of course the decision had nothing to do with what Audit Scotland describes as “static” funding of education in Scotland...

Perish the thought you cynically minded folk! 😏
(5/13)
And nothing to do with falling performance in core subjects:

➡️ “worst ever score in maths and science in a major international comparative study of education” (thank goodness there’s only one major international comparative ScotGov needs to worry about, eh?)
(6/13)
➡️ “Scotland scored better at reading than Northern Ireland but got a lower score than England and Northern Ireland on maths and science. England was best performing across all areas of the UK.”

Three cheers for being described as “around average” in maths and science...
(7/13)
2️⃣ Caught between a rock and a hard place

The SNP seem stuck between the teaching unions on the one hand, and their former (and they hope future) big ‘Yes’ donors regarding their failure to close the attainment gap
(8/13)
Angus Tulloch is an investment fund manager who gave £250,000 to Yes Scotland before the 2014 referendum.

He is angry at the teaching unions, and thinks the SNP are ‘failing’ to stand up to them...
(9/13)
And John Swinney has been feeling the need in recent weeks to start arguing with Scotland’s largest teaching union...
(10/13)
Naturally nobody in ScotGov has considered that maybe Curriculum for Excellence might be flawed, static education funding might be a problem & withdrawing from international education comparisons hides rather than addresses underlying issues.
(11/13)
Nah, let’s all just pick a fight with the teaching unions...that’ll help matters...
(12/13)
Almost forgot, I promised I'd start putting this link at the bottom of my twitter threads. It will (I hope!) take you to a collection of my previous twitter threads.

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More from @DeanMThomson

21 Apr
Why turnout & the number of postal votes matter in this election. And why Nicola Sturgeon is so risk averse as to duck BBCQT & unveil a magic money tree manifesto expanding middle class welfare

A thread.
(1/25)
1️⃣ Postal Voting

The Holyrood 2021 election there are a million postal votes, 23.8% of the electorate.

This is an increase on the 17.7% in 2016.
(2/25)
In 2016 the election turnout overall was 55.8% (constituency) and 55.9% (regional)

And exactly 726,555 postal votes were issued (17.7% of the total electorate)

Almost 77% of postal votes issued were returned by electors in 2016
(3/25) Image
Read 26 tweets
19 Apr
Is anyone else getting the sensation that polling is overstating SNP support? Or that the SNP are concerned about their internal numbers?

Here's a thread outlining some of my thinking.
➡️SNP Turnout issues
➡️Thinning poll leads
➡️Comparing 2016 & 2021
[1/19]
1⃣ Comparing poll leads (constituency)

The run-up to 2016 had the SNP polling very strongly:

In Feb 24th 2016 the SNP polled 60% (ten weeks out from the elections).
[2/19] Image
By March 22nd 2016, the SNP polled 56% (six weeks from the vote). Still very strong.
[3/19] Image
Read 20 tweets
14 Apr
A thread gathering together core facts about the drug deaths crisis in Scotland. Following Nicola Sturgeon’s admission that she took her “eye off the ball on drug deaths”, just how big a tragedy has the SNP presided over?

#SP21 #Holyrood2021
(1/10)
Fact 1:

Scotland has the more drug deaths per capita than any other European country.
(2/10)
Fact Two:

Benzodiazepines are becoming used as a way for high-risk opioid users to self-medicate or increase the effects of their heroin or methadone addictions.

The situation grows worse.
(3/10)
Read 11 tweets
11 Apr
What's all this about Fergus Ewing then?

A sorry story of unaccountability, dodgy deals, and the stench of sleaze amid a breached ministerial code.

Shady backroom deals spilling across Scottish and Westminster governments. And the current official silence is damning.

[1/20] Fergus Ewing & Sanjeev Gupta
➡️Doing Deals

At the heart of all of this are a complex set of financial deals struck between ScotGov, Sanjeev Gupta and Lex Greensill.

Hundreds of millions of pounds of taxpayers money is now at serious risk due to these deals.
[2/20]
Gupta secured massive state support to buy metal & power plants in ­Lanarkshire & Highlands.

But his firm GFG Alliance is in crisis. This is because his big-money backer Greensil Capital has already collapsed.
[3/20] Gupta & Nicola Sturgeon in 2016
Read 20 tweets
11 Apr
➡️The Incumbency Factor

A thread outlining some of the SNP government’s financial and economic failures.
(1/12)
1️⃣ Remember Fracking?

“Fracking is being banned in Scotland, end of story,”- Nicola Sturgeon

But it later turned out she squandered £175,000 to plead in court that she hadn’t actually banned fracking at all...
(2/12)
2️⃣ That publicly owned energy company...

Four years ago Sturgeon pledged “energy would be bought wholesale or generated here in Scotland...and sold to customers as close to cost price as possible”.

Despite £400,000 spent, no company was ever established
(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
4 Apr
A recent poll has made a big splash about the potential of this #Supermajority. But if we take a moment to just look at the polling trend lines, it's far too early to be making any sort of prognostication about any such thing.

Plus SNP majority? What SNP majority?

[1/11]
➡️Trend line since January 2021 - early April

Even to a layman's eyes, the downward trajectory of SNP support in regional polling is obvious.

If anyone is interested, the trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)
[2/11]
Here the same downward trajectory can also still be seen with SNP constituency polling; albeit their support on the constituency has a higher upper level it's declining from.
[3/11]
Read 11 tweets

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