Thread by @DeanMThomson

Is anyone else getting the sensation that polling is overstating SNP support? Or that the SNP are concerned about their internal numbers?

Here's a thread outlining some of my thinking.
➡️SNP Turnout issues
➡️Thinning poll leads
➡️Comparing 2016 & 2021
[1/19]

1⃣ Comparing poll leads (constituency)

The run-up to 2016 had the SNP polling very strongly:

In Feb 24th 2016 the SNP polled 60% (ten weeks out from the elections).
[2/19]

By March 22nd 2016, the SNP polled 56% (six weeks from the vote). Still very strong.
[3/19]

However, on election-day the SNP secured 46.5% of the vote 5th May 2016.

Their lead in March 22nd had been 37% over their nearest rival. By election day that had shrunk to 23.9%.
[4/19]

But if we compare the same time periods for 2021, we can immediately see SNP polling has not been as strong heading into the elections this year.
[5/19]

2021:

Feb 24th - SNP at 50%.
March 19th - 48%.
March 26th - 50%.

[6/19]

So?

The SNP were polling much more strongly in 2016 as compared to 2021, similarly far out from election day.

Yet their lead still shrank in 2016 from 37% to 23.9% over final six weeks. And that was a time when the SNP didn't have the baggage they have now
[7/19]

➡️Downward trend lines

Additionally, the SNP have been slowly unwinding in the constituency polls since October 2020. A clear downward trend line is observable.
[8/19]

Perhaps this is partly why the SNP have issued their manifesto magic-money-tree wish list?

Are their internal numbers (almost certainly superior to public polling) also suggest a continued unwinding of SNP support?

They need a reset moment to stop this slide.
[9/19]

➡️Turnout problems?

Panelbase
Sample size: 1002
Fieldwork dates: 9 April 2021 - 12 April 2021

Among those most certain to vote, the SNP only scores 42% in the data tables.
[10/19]

So that headline '47%' for the SNP hides a telling bit of information.

The SNP can only count on 42% constituency vote share among those most certain to vote.

If the SNP can't get their less inclined to vote supporters to actually vote...they might be in trouble.
[11/19]

➡️Problems on the SNP Homefront

And the SNP might very well have reason to be concerned about getting their vote out. After all, their policies such as Hate Crime & Public Order Bill has proven very divisive among their own support base.
[12/19]

Savanta Comres polling:

'It should be a criminal offence to speak words that cause offence'

2019 SNP voters:

Strongly disagree - 18%
Somewhat disagree - 22%
Neither- 28%
Somewhat agree - 21%
Strongly agree - 11%
[13/19]

What at means is that more SNP voters disagree than agree fundamentally with the core concept of the Hate Crime & Public Order Bill:

Sum disagree 39%
Sum agree 32%
Net: -8%

And this might actually matter more than you think...
[14/19]

SNP realise how damaging all this is, undermining motivation among their own supporters to vote for them.

Salmond's Alba is making a big song & dance over 'women only safe spaces' (defined by sex, not gender) for a reason...he knows how big a problem the SNP have here.
[15/19]

➡️Conclusion

I think the bankable SNP constituency support is lower than headline poll numbers suggest

If the SNP have turnout problems they could be in real trouble (remember they need to not just hold constituencies, but also make gains to win any sort of majority)
[16/19]

The slow slide on SNP support in constituency polling is continuing.

This slippage is happening, despite them entering Holyrood 2021 election polling weaker than similar timing back in 2016.

This explains the SNP magic-money-tree giveaway manifesto. They're worried.
[17/19]

Sources:

How a new Hate Crime Bill reveals the SNP’s unmoored approach to governance
newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…

SavantaComres poll table:
…1ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/upl…

(alternative SavantaComres poll link)
comresglobal.com/polls/free-to-…
[18/19]

Panelbase poll table:
drg.global/wp-content/upl…

(alternative Panelbase poll links)
drg.global/our-work/polit…

Majority of Scots oppose new hate crime laws, poll suggests
scotsman.com/news/politics/…
[19/19]

Final Note: The gender and hate crime stuff is a big division among nationalist voters & Salmond is going for Sturgeon over it. It could cost the SNP 3 list MSPs.

Add to that the SNP hopes of making gains on constituency vanishing.

Goodbye SNP majority.