Thread by @gavinsblog

Ok here's my calculation of delivered to administered doses to Week 15 (ie to Friday, April 16)

PB: Delivered 1,009,710; Administered 892,535
AZ: Delivered 355,200; Administered 243,846
M: Delivered 109,200; Administered 51,973

JJ: Delivered 14,400; Administered 0

Which means *stock on hand* going into Saturday April 17 of:

PB: 117,175
AZ: 111,354
M: 57,227
JJ: 14,400

In the data we have available Sat -> Mon we can subtract and say current stock is:

PB: 90,021
AZ: 108,692
M: 55,910
JJ: 14,400

I assume the 108k on hand AZ are for giving to 65-69 year olds this week. Moderna has a 50% buffer.

Further deliveries this week will change these numbers.

The 90k PB on hand will likely *all* go into arms this week. And we can assume a delivery of another 140k PB this week.

And why is it left up to me, a person on Twitter to explain this? Just publish the numbers in real time! They're the most important numbers in the country right now.

Here's what we can say now based on this data:

~91% of PB doses delivered have been put into arms up to Monday.

~70% of AZ doses delivered have been put into arms up to Monday.

A whole load of 65-69 year olds are scheduled to receive AZ this week.

But again: it's pretty easy for the Gov to just publish the delivery numbers in realtime. It's numbers on a spreadsheet, or in a tweet.

And is there a load of vaccines sitting in fridges not being used? Not really, no.