Thread

I've said it before and I say it again.

* Sideways trading since the tech correction is constructive.

* 2021 won't be like 2020.

* The moves won't be as fun, as scary, nor as often.

* Now is the time to research.

/1
* Market moves will come, but knowing what to do with them starts when there are no market moves, right now.

* Your patience is your conviction.

* Perspective means more than trusting in a recovery from a down trend or avoiding FOMO in an uptrend.

...

/2
* It means patience when 90% of the time, there is nothing to do.

* We will continue to research when it's 'boring.' We will allow investing to not be entertainment.

* This thing, this market, participating in it, it's on purpose.

...

/3
* Those with perspective are going to win and they don't need anyone else to do so, even CML Pro.

* This is work time

Our work is done at CML Pro:
bit.ly/CMLPro

Our results have been auditor verified.

4/4

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More from @OphirGottlieb

22 Apr
Thread

This is how negotiations work. It's game theory, specifically it's called "anchoring."

* Biden puts out a $2.7T infra proposal, knowing that won't fly, but in a hope to get lawmakers attached to the $2.7T number.  The idea is "how much lower than $2.7T will it be."

/1
* GOP knows this, ofc, so they try to re-anchor with a $550B infra proposal, to get lawmakers attached to that number. They too know that won't fly. The idea is to change it from "how much lower than $2.7T will it be," to "how much above $550B will it be."

...

/2
* Biden also knows this, ofc, so he starts tugging on raising taxes, knowing full well those numbers won't fly but anchoring on "capital gain tax increase and personal income tax increase."

...

/3
Read 7 tweets
16 Apr
$PINS Something I shared with CML Pro yesterday.

A thread

/1
$PINS

First, if there is a short report showing poor "channel checks," so be it.

Now onward to years rather than quarters...

/2
$PINS

Bearish Thesis: Pinterest will miss out on the younger generation which is the money honey pot:

Information:
The number of Gen Z users grew by 40% in 2020. In terms of generational demographics, Pinterest saw the most growth last year with Gen Z.

via @pinterestbiz

/3
Read 16 tweets
17 Mar
$PD

* Revenue: $59MM vs $57.48M estimates

Full Year Guidance
* Revenue: $ 267M vs $262.61M
2/n

$PD

* Revenue: $59MM vs $57.48M estimates
* EPS: -$0.07 vs -$0.11

Full Year Guidance
* Revenue: $ 267M vs $262.61M
* EPS: -$0.395 vs -$0.22
3/n

$PD

Fourth quarter total Dollar-Based Net Retention accelerated sequentially to 121%
Read 6 tweets
9 Mar
CML members, we are soon to get community out to everyone, for now I'll share my thoughts from there, here.
Two narratives exist:

1. Getting over COVID, job growth, consumer spending, GDP growth will cause permanent inflation due to the collision with accomodative fiscal and monetary policy.

Higher inflation means higher rates which impact long term valuations due to discount rates.
2. Resulting inflation is temporary, just as COVID's recession was temporary; getting out is the start to another economic boom and a bull market.

Today, narrative 2 is winning.

In the long term, narrative 2 always wins. 

It just doesn't happen as fast as we want it to.
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
1/n

$LFMD LifeMD Q1 2021 Revenues on Track to Exceed $17 Million, up 295%, with Subscriptions Representing More than 80% of Total Revenue cmlviz.com/article.php?ar…
2/n

$LFMD

Subscriptions are expected to generate more than 80% of revenue in the quarter, compared to about 63% in the same year-ago period.
3/n

$LFMD

Given that 80% of revenue is recurring/subscription, this feels more like a technology company than anything else.

295% growth now on a $68M run rate, this company should do $100M in revenue in 2021.

I am long calls, call spreads, and short puts.
Read 5 tweets
25 Feb
1/n

$FTCH

* Revenue: $540M (+64%) vs $515.77M estimates
* EPS: -0.06 vs -0.13
2/n

$FTCH

Next Year Guidance

* Digital Platform GMV of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, representing growth of 30% to 35% year-over-year

* Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1% to 2%

🚨🚨🚨This would mean positive EPS vs -$0.62 estimates
3/n

$FTCH

Full Year Analysts had +35% forecasts

Company guides GMV to be $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, representing growth of 30% to 35% year-over-year
Read 10 tweets

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