@hussmanjp Majority (according to BofA) thinks we are in a late stage bull or in a bubble. So, guess they are aware. The problem is there's no timing tool for this kind of greedy psychology trying to sqeeze every possible index point till the top no matter the exponentially increasing risk.
@hussmanjp It seems the probability of a top beeing in or beeing away for another 3 months is pretty much the same.

Actually, if we consider today's SPAC mania to be comparable to '00s tech mania, and compare the movement of SPAC index to NDX, topping could take another 3 months or so...
@hussmanjp Like #NDX topped earlier in 00 than the #SPX, #SPACs could top earlier than $NDX today, with 2nd leg in SPACS being the real deal on major indices.
Recent absorption of institutional selling by retail and yesterday's strong relative up volume make me consider adjusting timing

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22 Apr
Avg holding period is below 1 year and most of returns come from price action so one could argue that capital gain tax increase 20->50% makes stocks 60% more expensive.

Add corp tax increase that'll eat chunk of earnings and multiply all by already highest valuations ever.
Don't know if historically lower/negative GDP growth in periods with higher capital gains tax is coincidence or not, but basic logic would agree that there is less incentive to invest with higher taxes. Image
According to this chart one could notice that realized gains (as % GDP) tend to rise before an increase and after a decrease in max tax rate on LT gains. Image
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