Ok a thread on my thoughts on the safety of the #Peloton Tread and $PTON. Here’s the video of the safety concern. The CPSC posted a much more graphic video on YouTube (dont recommend watching). The open belt has the risk of sucking stuff under the machine.
1. On one hand, all treadmills are heavy machinery and children shouldn’t be allowed near them in use (or use them unsupervised).
2. The open back design is very common, and not specific to $PTON. Woodways look equally dangerous.
3. I took a look at my own ProForm folding treadmill, and it is definitely still at least 60% as dangerous as the #Peloton Tread.
4. BUT there does seem to be a bar below the belt that might prevent things from getting fully sucked under (so just partially sucked under)
5. The two risks are (1) unintended usage and (2) danger of other things touching the back while in use.
$PTON is rolling out an add’l passcode to prevent (1), which is good. But (2) is still a risk and both a user issue and design issue.
My conclusion is...
Users need to b diligent & not let pets/ppl around the back of the #peloton Tread in use.
But the Tread is also more dangerous than other at-home treadmills bc it doesn’t have that bar or guard. @keylargofoley@onepeloton should install this for free instead of a recall.
Will this prevent people from buying the Tread? Maybe it softens demand a bit. But do I think a $4000+ #Peloton Tread customer buys a $2000 ProForm instead bc of safety? Prob not. They’re prob more turned off from treadmills in general...
I’m still net bullish on $PTON, but wary that Tread was expected to contribute meaningfully to 2022 growth (per $PTON transcripts). @keylargofoley@onepeloton have the PR opp to fix the issue with a cheap hardware fix + good marketing “We made it safer”, and I hope they do so.
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Ok this #CapitalGainsTax stuff warrants a thread because we're wading into what people misconstrue as "politics", but what I think of as "economic incentives"
As always, the reality is more nuanced than the narrative. I'll address the basics, feedback, & practical takeaways👇
1. Capital investment is the practice of putting your $ at risk in exchange for potential reward. Hence, risk/reward. The reward for putting your money at risk = "capital gains"
2. Types of capital investments you can make:
(a) OPERATING investment (Co. hires ppl, buys machines or builds houses)
(b) DIRECT investment (invest $ in Co. so they can hire ppl or buy machines)
(c) SECONDARY investments (buy from another person bc u think the value will go up)
Despite Andreessen Horowitz (who I revere) doubling down, I'm not particularly optimistic about #Clubhouse with $FB, Reddit, $TWTR launching live audio.
1) Live conversations are more attractive with creators or community.
It's why its generally more fun to meet new people in a mutual friend setting. And it's why, as a consumer, the platform isn't natively compelling without big names like @elonmusk or @chamath hosting a talk.
2) As a creator, Clubhouse provides by far the lowest ROI on your creation time and energy.
Creators can only make a living by entertaining or educating and reaching large numbers to subsidize the cost ($3 CPM, $9.99/mo, $99 per ticket, etc)
My #1 piece of advice I have for those seeking financial freedom is to focus on "escape velocity". Money has funny physics that we have to overcome for those of us that don't inherit wealth. Here's how:
1. Money has a "Gravity" to it. A cup of Starbucks coffee, Chipotle burrito or 1BR apt costs the same for all of us. That means in order to live a relatively ordinary single life, you'll prob spend $30-40k per year in the US. Many obviously make do w much less & many spend more.
2. Because this, you can't even start the investing battle until you're making more post-tax than you spend. It's why budgeting, minimalism, and frugality content is so ubiquitously popular. It's easier to show people how to reduce spending and harder to show how to "make more"