"..a 4C rise could come by 2060 or 2070, depending on the feedbacks."
'Soaring emissions must peak and start to fall sharply within the next decade to head off a 2C rise, he said. To avoid the 4C scenario, that peak must come by the 2030s.' dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
'projections for 2021 show emissions are likely to end this year still down slightly on 2019 levels, but on a rising path. Next year there could be even stronger rises' dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
This more recent study confirms 4C by 2050-2100 is increasingly likely because emissions still aren't falling.
We must force zero emissions by 2025-2030 for a reasonable chance of decent human survival in my opinion. Some scientints suggest 2035.
It was a very different message from one of the authors Sir Robert Watson in May 2019:
'the good news is that there are many policies and technologies that will limit global temperature rise and address the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity'dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/…
'Sometimes realisation comes in a blinding flash.. Why has it taken us so long to speak out about the obvious dangers of the concept of net zero? In our defence, the premise of net zero is deceptively simple – and we admit that it deceived us.'
Capitalism is blocking ecological-climate emergency action for short-term profit maximization. The economy is endangering billions of lives.The UN says global food insecurity is on the horizon.
We must force transformative economic-political change & emergency action in the 2020s for decent survival.
2. "The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible"phys.org/news/2020-08-e…
1. My criticism is generally of state-corporate media systems not scientific institutions (any comment, @nowthisnews?), but surely AGU shouldn't be sharing this article?
2.
'Doubling pre-industrial CO2 levels has a 95% chance of warming the planet by at least 2°C... Scientists believe that beyond this threshold, climate change will lead to disastrous sea level rise and other extreme weather events.'
You know you're living in a world of state-corporate media propaganda when you click that just like today scientists and politicians in the 1980s were calling for huge decreases in greenhouse gas emissions within 12 years due to fears over global warming and it's still not news.
1.
'An international conference of scientists and senior politicians in Toronto last June called for a 20-per-cent decrease in emissions by the year 2005.'
Look in the supplementary materials of the peer-reviewed science discussed here and you may come to the conclusion that not only may 1.5C & 1.75C be impossible targets, but that 2C may be virtually impossible too.
Which statement best describes the current climate chaos situation?
a) avoiding +1.5°C may be possible
b) long-term warming expected from today's +500ppm CO₂-e is at least 2.5℃
c) temperature rises of 3- 4°C are likely now locked in
d) all of the above
Scientists differ on whether this statement is appropriate:
'The Australian Academy of Science says the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees has now slipped out of reach and is “virtually impossible”smh.com.au/environment/cl…
State-corporate media remain silent on this:
'Atmospheric scientists use CO₂-e as a convenient way to aggregate the effect of all the long-lived greenhouse gases..