2/8 Last week we saw a dip in the probably B.1.1.7 cases determined by TaqPath SGTF results. I showed how the sequencing tracked with the SGTF data, and that the dip was probably a blip...
3/8 That "blip" was confirmed: B.1.1.7 📈 this week in both the sequencing and TaqPath SGTF data (shown 👇). While we expect B.1.1.7 to continue this trend until it dominates (like in the UK), the good news is that we are seeing a reduction in both B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 cases.
4/8 This week we sequenced 2 B.1.1.7 samples + the E484K mutation. They are unrelated to each other, likely representing independent emergences/introductions into CT. So far this is not too alarming given their low frequencies, but something that we keep an eye on.
5/8 This week the CDC updated their VOI list to include B.1.526.1, but not B.1.526.2. Their likely rationale is that B.1.526.1 has the L542R mutation, which the CDC recently classified as a "Substitution of Therapeutic Concern", along with E484K.
6/8 Before the update we were lumping B.1.526 + B.1.526.1 + B.1.526.2 as "B.1.526", which is still reflected as such in our main frequency plot (we'll update this for next week).
👇 is a breakdown of the B.1.526 lineages showing their decline in recent weeks.
7/8 This week we added a new section on "SARS-CoV-2 mutations of interest". The figure shows the temporal frequencies of Spike E484K on all lineages, and you can find similar plots for several other mutations by following the links.
8/8 This week I'd like to recognize 🌟 PhD student @MaryPetrone10 for establishing the Illumina COVIDseq protocol in our lab that significantly expanded our capacity. She's also leading several projects, e.g. comparing the 💪 of B.1.1.7 vs B.1.526 in CT.
2/9 While we continue to see the rapid decline of non-VOCs/VOIs, the competition between B.1.1.7 & B.1.526 is quite interesting, and could have significant public health importance. Currently B.1.1.7 is "winning", though things could rapidly change as more people get vaccinated.
3/9 For the first time we saw B.1.1.7 📉 from TaqPath data, which could mean that it is slowing down (it has to at some point). Below I also plotted the B.1.1.7 frequency estimates from our sequencing data, which has tracked with TaqPath and importantly still shows B.1.1.7 📈
3/6 We predicted that B.1.1.7 would become dominant in CT in our recent paper led by @tdalpert, @AndersonBrito_, & co. However, we thought that this would have happened earlier in March. The slowdown of B.1.1.7 was likely due to the rapid rise of B.1.526.
2/8 We didn't see an increase in the % of B.1.1.7 from the sequencing data last week, and the TaqPAth SGTF data also suggests that the expansion of B.1.1.7 *might* be slowing down in CT.
While this is good news, I think that it points to something else...
3/8 That something else is B.1.526.
It made up 32% of the sequenced cases analyzed this week, a 9% increase from the week before.
Its proportion is higher in Fairfield county, which is close to NY - where B.1.526 is currently dominating.
2/5 TaqPath SGTF data from YNHH (mostly New Haven County) and JAX (New Haven, Hartford, and some other counties) shows that the frequency of B.1.1.7 keeps 📈. Thankfully, the B.1.1.7 cases and total cases are still way down. Lets work to keep it that way.
3/5 We detected a B.1.1.7 sequence with the E484K mutation from a sample collected from New Haven County (CT). The genome is very closely related to others sequenced in CT so its likely acquired this mutation independently. This is potentially concerning for vaccines.
2/3 TaqPath SGTF data from YNHH (mostly New Haven County) and JAX (New Haven, Hartford, and some other counties) shows that probable B.1.1.7 cases keep 📈 as non-B.1.1.7 cases slowly 📉.
B.1.1.7 is now ~35% of the total cases (~40% from YNHH and ~26% from JAX).
3/3 (YNHH TaqPath data only)
Our earlier projections of B.1.1.7 frequency growth are still pretty close. We expect the YNHH B.1.1.7 numbers to cross 50% this week, and the combined (YNHH and JAX) to cross 50% next week.
1/3 New Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance report - @CovidCT
B.1.1.7 is rising rapidly, now close to 25% of positives in the New Haven area (based on SGTF results, purple). I'm worried that a rebound in cases will follow.
2/3 Most of the *confirmed* B.1.1.7 cases have been found in New Haven County because that is were we do most of our sequencing (primary catchment area of Yale diagnostic labs). We are working to increase sequencing from across the state.
3/3 In addition to the variants of concern - B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 - we've detected several *variants of interest*.
B.1.429, first reported in CA, may be increasing in frequency.
B.1.525 and B.1.526 (first reported from NY) are of interest because they have the E484K mutation.