3/6 We predicted that B.1.1.7 would become dominant in CT in our recent paper led by @tdalpert, @AndersonBrito_, & co. However, we thought that this would have happened earlier in March. The slowdown of B.1.1.7 was likely due to the rapid rise of B.1.526.
4/6 This figure by @MaryPetrone10 shows how B.1.1.7 and B.1.526 (including B.1.526.1 & B.1.526.2) are increasing at similar rates, displacing most other lineages in CT. Based on our most recent sequencing data, these together make up ~80% of the cases in CT.
5/6 The co-rise of B.1.1.7 and B.1.526 is leaving little room for other variants - like B.1.351 & P.1 - to emerge and spread. Perhaps this is a good thing, as P.1 + Brazil is a terrible situation, but that really depends on the impacts that B.1.526 will have on public health.
6/6 This week I'd like to highlight the work by @aewatkins6 who manages a lot of our PCR and lineage reports data. She also has helped to lead many of our NBA/NFL projects prior to this. Here she is with @XtinaHarden and our first delivery of saliva samples from the NBA last June
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2/8 We didn't see an increase in the % of B.1.1.7 from the sequencing data last week, and the TaqPAth SGTF data also suggests that the expansion of B.1.1.7 *might* be slowing down in CT.
While this is good news, I think that it points to something else...
3/8 That something else is B.1.526.
It made up 32% of the sequenced cases analyzed this week, a 9% increase from the week before.
Its proportion is higher in Fairfield county, which is close to NY - where B.1.526 is currently dominating.
2/5 TaqPath SGTF data from YNHH (mostly New Haven County) and JAX (New Haven, Hartford, and some other counties) shows that the frequency of B.1.1.7 keeps 📈. Thankfully, the B.1.1.7 cases and total cases are still way down. Lets work to keep it that way.
3/5 We detected a B.1.1.7 sequence with the E484K mutation from a sample collected from New Haven County (CT). The genome is very closely related to others sequenced in CT so its likely acquired this mutation independently. This is potentially concerning for vaccines.
2/3 TaqPath SGTF data from YNHH (mostly New Haven County) and JAX (New Haven, Hartford, and some other counties) shows that probable B.1.1.7 cases keep 📈 as non-B.1.1.7 cases slowly 📉.
B.1.1.7 is now ~35% of the total cases (~40% from YNHH and ~26% from JAX).
3/3 (YNHH TaqPath data only)
Our earlier projections of B.1.1.7 frequency growth are still pretty close. We expect the YNHH B.1.1.7 numbers to cross 50% this week, and the combined (YNHH and JAX) to cross 50% next week.
1/3 New Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance report - @CovidCT
B.1.1.7 is rising rapidly, now close to 25% of positives in the New Haven area (based on SGTF results, purple). I'm worried that a rebound in cases will follow.
2/3 Most of the *confirmed* B.1.1.7 cases have been found in New Haven County because that is were we do most of our sequencing (primary catchment area of Yale diagnostic labs). We are working to increase sequencing from across the state.
3/3 In addition to the variants of concern - B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 - we've detected several *variants of interest*.
B.1.429, first reported in CA, may be increasing in frequency.
B.1.525 and B.1.526 (first reported from NY) are of interest because they have the E484K mutation.
2/n Temporal distribution of B.1.1.7 cases doesn't accurately reflect the growth of B.1.1.7 in CT as the sequence reporting is still lagging. Next week we'll have temporal est of frequency based on SGTF. B.1.1.7 is currently associated with 5-10% of the COVID-19 cases in CT.
3/n Phylogenetics of B.1.1.7 cases show many different clusters, some associated with NY.
New SARS-CoV-2 variant update for Connecticut.
- 42 cases of B.1.1.7
- 1 case of B.1.351
- 5 cases of B.1.525 (not of concern yet, but we are monitoring)