A thread:

From this morning's new Top Pick dossier.

We see a decade long thematic coming and we have not heard or read any other research firm define it, so we will define it.

(bit.ly/CMLPro)

/1
This may be the largest thematic we cover, perhaps eclipsing the size of the genomics space.

In the future we believe that research shops and analysts will begin to use the word "engament" not as verb to describe activity on a platform but as a thematic.

Let me explain...

/2
(Virutally) every company in the in world, digital or otherwise, sews sales rise as engament rises.

First, some non obvious examples:

* More time in an aisle at a grocery story means more sales and loyalty.

* More time at an auto dealer means a more likely sale.
...

/3
* More time washing a car, your hands, a house, means more product used.

These non obvious, non digital observations allow us to reach deeper into the idea of engagement as a core thematic to almost anything that is commercial.

More engament. More money.

/4
But when we get to the digital world, engament becomes far more pressing, far more measurable, and far more pressing to financial markets.

/5
* Engagement for $ROKU etc is measured in hours streaming. More engagement, more money.

* Engagement in social media is measured as time spent on app and MAU / DAU.

* Engagement on a website is measured as "avg time per session."

/6
* Engagement for e-commerce is measured as "GMV."

All of these things rely on a core underpinning idea -- making the content do something better or getting to the content in an easier way.

/7
The Internet will change -- how data is presented and how quickly it can be reached.

Just as smart phones created a new Internet, let's call it the "appification" of the Internet, so too the infra of the Internet will create another "new Internet."

/8
This Internet will be so much faster and delivered with such better technology that it will enable higher levels of engagement.

It will require:

1. Speed - a lot of it.
2. Content enhancement

/9
Speed it easy for use to understand. 5G / 6G and a lot a lot a lot of edge.

Content enhancement is tricky.

How do we make *existing* more engaging without remaking it?

How can we do so in all areas, agnostic to platform/code base?

/10
That is a part of the trillion dollar market -- the ten trillion dollar market.

We know about AR/VRA, good place to start.

But we have to go beyond a headset and hardware.

/11
We know about immersive technology and content, but to shake the world, to reap the rewards of this speed driven "new Internet, again," we must address casual, not necessarily immersive content.

/12
This solution will play out over a decade and it will, with speed, be one of the few thematics we will pursue at CML Pro.

The enablers of this enhancement in an easy manner will find gigantic reward.

/13
The mega techs have an edge since they own the platforms that hold the content.

- iOS, Android, Amazon store, etc

But the solution, in our view, will be agnostic, like so many other parts of burgeoning technology.

/14
It is in the "non mega tech" realm that the alpha exists.

It's an opinion, but one which we hold with conviction.

/15
This is what is meant be thematic investing and this is what we do at CML Pro.

Thanks for reading.

You can learn more about CML Pro here: bit.ly/CMLPro

And you can see our auditor verified track record in the image below.

/16

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More from @OphirGottlieb

27 Apr
1/n

$PINS

* EPS $0.11 Beats $0.07 Estimate
* Sales $485.23M Beat $473.66M Estimate
MAU: 478M vs 480.5
2/n

$PINS

Guidance

... ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and other factors. Our current expectation is that Q2 revenue will grow around 105% year over year.

In Q2, we expect global MAUs to grow in the mid-teens and US MAUs to be around flat on a year-over-year percentage basis.
3/n

$PINS

That 105% guidance means:

Revenue: $559M vs $530.43M
Read 6 tweets
27 Apr
A thread on $FTCH

CML Pro members I am speaking about $FTCH in Community.

Some thoughts on $FTCH

With Farfetch, we have a third leg to the story — China.

/1
As you will read with our earnings review in a couple of weeks, Farfetch has a fabulous position in China — unusually strong for a non Chinese brand.

We got news from Alizila, which is Alibaba’s for profit news outlet, that Farfetch has launched its Luxury Pavilion.

...

/2
Here’s a snippet:

------

Farfetch officially debuted its digital store on Tmall Luxury Pavilion on Monday – a move that drastically expands the range of products available to millions of shoppers on the Alibaba-owned platform for luxury and designer brands.

------

...

/3
Read 9 tweets
22 Apr
Thread

This is how negotiations work. It's game theory, specifically it's called "anchoring."

* Biden puts out a $2.7T infra proposal, knowing that won't fly, but in a hope to get lawmakers attached to the $2.7T number.  The idea is "how much lower than $2.7T will it be."

/1
* GOP knows this, ofc, so they try to re-anchor with a $550B infra proposal, to get lawmakers attached to that number. They too know that won't fly. The idea is to change it from "how much lower than $2.7T will it be," to "how much above $550B will it be."

...

/2
* Biden also knows this, ofc, so he starts tugging on raising taxes, knowing full well those numbers won't fly but anchoring on "capital gain tax increase and personal income tax increase."

...

/3
Read 7 tweets
21 Apr
Thread

I've said it before and I say it again.

* Sideways trading since the tech correction is constructive.

* 2021 won't be like 2020.

* The moves won't be as fun, as scary, nor as often.

* Now is the time to research.

/1
* Market moves will come, but knowing what to do with them starts when there are no market moves, right now.

* Your patience is your conviction.

* Perspective means more than trusting in a recovery from a down trend or avoiding FOMO in an uptrend.

...

/2
* It means patience when 90% of the time, there is nothing to do.

* We will continue to research when it's 'boring.' We will allow investing to not be entertainment.

* This thing, this market, participating in it, it's on purpose.

...

/3
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
$PINS Something I shared with CML Pro yesterday.

A thread

/1
$PINS

First, if there is a short report showing poor "channel checks," so be it.

Now onward to years rather than quarters...

/2
$PINS

Bearish Thesis: Pinterest will miss out on the younger generation which is the money honey pot:

Information:
The number of Gen Z users grew by 40% in 2020. In terms of generational demographics, Pinterest saw the most growth last year with Gen Z.

via @pinterestbiz

/3
Read 16 tweets
17 Mar
$PD

* Revenue: $59MM vs $57.48M estimates

Full Year Guidance
* Revenue: $ 267M vs $262.61M
2/n

$PD

* Revenue: $59MM vs $57.48M estimates
* EPS: -$0.07 vs -$0.11

Full Year Guidance
* Revenue: $ 267M vs $262.61M
* EPS: -$0.395 vs -$0.22
3/n

$PD

Fourth quarter total Dollar-Based Net Retention accelerated sequentially to 121%
Read 6 tweets

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