In about 15 minutes, we’ll find out whether Minnesota is going to lose one of its 8 congressional seats for the next decade. Many experts expect MN *will* lose a seat, but we’re on the cusp. Stay tuned, I’ll be tweeting out the news and writing it up later for @MPRnews.
@MPRnews Note that the fact that some states will lose seats as a result of the Census is not in the constitution. A law fixed the size of the House at 435 members. In the 19th Century, the House tended to get more members each decade, instead of reapportioning a fixed sum.
@MPRnews First we need to wade through preliminary remarks before everyone finds out the apportionment numbers…
@MPRnews Our benchmark: Minnesota’s 2010 Census population was 5,303,925.
It had an estimated 5.64 million people in 2019.
@MPRnews States won’t get block-level population data for redistricting for months yet — “no later than Sept. 30,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo just said.
Via @BitsyPerlman, here’s a fascinating redistricting idea I hadn’t encountered before, called “Primary Allocation.” Seats are allocated to parties proportionally via a statewide election. Then each party divides the state into districts for their reps… fordham.edu/download/downl…
@BitsyPerlman First, that’s fascinating to reverse the order of the primary and general elections — the “general” comes first to allocate seats, then the “primary” comes second to choose who fills them! Not sure if that’s better or not, but it’s counterintuitive and I like that.
@BitsyPerlman Second, it gets at two competing impulses in electoral system design: that results ought to be roughly proportional to the population, and that everyone should have “their” representatives.
As of today, Minnesota’s average #COVID19 positivity rate is 4.97%.
That’s the first time it’s been under the 5% warning line since March 29. It comes after 11 straight days of improvement.
Minnesota’s now down to an average of just under 1,700 newly reported #COVID19 cases per day, compared to more than 2,100/day two weeks ago.
Active, confirmed cases are down to just over 15,000, from a peak over 20K.
Unless there’s a data error on @mnhealth’s website, today Minnesota reported 0 new #COVID19 deaths for the first time since March 22, and only the 2nd time since last April.
Minnesota’s #COVID19 recovery continues. We’re now onto 10 straight days of declining positivity rate, and 7 straight days of falling case totals (both based on averages).
Hospitalizations are a little messier (one would expect this metric to lag cases/positivity by a bit) but there are still real signs of improvement here, too:
Interestingly, though hospital admissions data seems to be trending own, #COVID19 bed use in ICUs is still rising. (Again, ICU metrics perhaps trail regular hospitalization trends…)
More encouraging news on Minnesota’s #COVID19 outbreak. Average positivity rate has now fallen for four straight days, and is about where this metric was two weeks ago.
Last Monday saw a week-over-week drop in the number of new #COVID19 cases found by that day’s tests for the first time in six weeks.
Even hospitalization metrics look like they might have peaked.
Has Minnesota’s 3rd #COVID19 wave hit its peak? I always try to be somewhat cautious with these calls, but on Thursday MN was averaging 6.22% positivity; it’s since dropped 3 straight days to 5.97%, and has been basically flat over the past two weeks.
The rate of new cases by sample date (which lags real events by about a week, but isn’t skewed by reporting artifacts) is still rising, but you can see the rate of growth has been slowing noticably recently. And a lot of this is driven by increased testing.
If you peek ahead at the less-reliable data on cases by sample date from the past 7 days, you can see cases have risen the past 5 Mondays — but at least for now, it looks like last Monday will break that trend and show a drop for tests conducted that day.