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David H. Montgomery Profile picture
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26 Apr, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Minnesota will NOT LOSE A SEAT
Huge upset — Minnesota was expected to lose a seat because other states grew more quickly, but it looks like it just squeaked in!
Big winners here: @michellefischb and @PeteStauber.
One side effect of Minnesota keeping all 8 seats: the wild at-large statewide congressional election scenario is now off the table: mprnews.org/story/2021/02/…
The 2020 Census population counts were a little below the Census Bureau’s expectations, which may have helped MN keep its seat — other states didn’t grow as quickly as expected.
The YouTube stream I’m watching is about 30 seconds behind the phone call I’m dialed into, which is somewhat disconcerting.
Minnesota got the LAST SEAT IN CONGRESS.

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More from @dhmontgomery

David H. Montgomery Profile picture
26 Apr
Via @BitsyPerlman, here’s a fascinating redistricting idea I hadn’t encountered before, called “Primary Allocation.” Seats are allocated to parties proportionally via a statewide election. Then each party divides the state into districts for their reps… fordham.edu/download/downl…
@BitsyPerlman First, that’s fascinating to reverse the order of the primary and general elections — the “general” comes first to allocate seats, then the “primary” comes second to choose who fills them! Not sure if that’s better or not, but it’s counterintuitive and I like that.
@BitsyPerlman Second, it gets at two competing impulses in electoral system design: that results ought to be roughly proportional to the population, and that everyone should have “their” representatives.
Read 4 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
26 Apr
In about 15 minutes, we’ll find out whether Minnesota is going to lose one of its 8 congressional seats for the next decade. Many experts expect MN *will* lose a seat, but we’re on the cusp. Stay tuned, I’ll be tweeting out the news and writing it up later for @MPRnews.
@MPRnews Note that the fact that some states will lose seats as a result of the Census is not in the constitution. A law fixed the size of the House at 435 members. In the 19th Century, the House tended to get more members each decade, instead of reapportioning a fixed sum.
@MPRnews First we need to wade through preliminary remarks before everyone finds out the apportionment numbers…
Read 6 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
26 Apr
As of today, Minnesota’s average #COVID19 positivity rate is 4.97%.

That’s the first time it’s been under the 5% warning line since March 29. It comes after 11 straight days of improvement.
Minnesota’s now down to an average of just under 1,700 newly reported #COVID19 cases per day, compared to more than 2,100/day two weeks ago.

Active, confirmed cases are down to just over 15,000, from a peak over 20K.
Unless there’s a data error on @mnhealth’s website, today Minnesota reported 0 new #COVID19 deaths for the first time since March 22, and only the 2nd time since last April.
Read 10 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
25 Apr
Minnesota’s #COVID19 recovery continues. We’re now onto 10 straight days of declining positivity rate, and 7 straight days of falling case totals (both based on averages).
Hospitalizations are a little messier (one would expect this metric to lag cases/positivity by a bit) but there are still real signs of improvement here, too:
Interestingly, though hospital admissions data seems to be trending own, #COVID19 bed use in ICUs is still rising. (Again, ICU metrics perhaps trail regular hospitalization trends…)
Read 10 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
19 Apr
More encouraging news on Minnesota’s #COVID19 outbreak. Average positivity rate has now fallen for four straight days, and is about where this metric was two weeks ago.
Last Monday saw a week-over-week drop in the number of new #COVID19 cases found by that day’s tests for the first time in six weeks.
Even hospitalization metrics look like they might have peaked.
Read 11 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
18 Apr
Has Minnesota’s 3rd #COVID19 wave hit its peak? I always try to be somewhat cautious with these calls, but on Thursday MN was averaging 6.22% positivity; it’s since dropped 3 straight days to 5.97%, and has been basically flat over the past two weeks.
The rate of new cases by sample date (which lags real events by about a week, but isn’t skewed by reporting artifacts) is still rising, but you can see the rate of growth has been slowing noticably recently. And a lot of this is driven by increased testing.
If you peek ahead at the less-reliable data on cases by sample date from the past 7 days, you can see cases have risen the past 5 Mondays — but at least for now, it looks like last Monday will break that trend and show a drop for tests conducted that day.
Read 6 tweets

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