Everytime u hear a VARIANT explanation, always scary, be sure u're considered dumb
Now, it is the India variant
The process is always the same, variant detection, increase in cases and horrible local images in media: now, same Indian CPResuscitation and funeral pyres everywhere
Media Fear Porn on Indian Variant began last March.
Guess what was growing then in India?
Bingo
Testing DOUBLED
They're recurring India now cos brute numbers are HUGE
"Pandemic in India" is ONE FIFTH of the whole world's epidemic.
When POP scaled nothing special going on there
South Africa Variant?
Let's check.
SA variant media fear campaign began December '20.
Again, testing rocketed x4.
In this crazy antiscientifical system that means for times more CASES too.
So 🦆 ing concerning!
Finally, the starlet of the Variants
B 1.1.7: the British Variant.
It began early December, and was followed by the WORLD'S CRAZIEST TEST RAMPAGE, peaking at pop 2% tested EVERY DAY.
Did 'Pandemic control' get any better with this effort?
Of course NOT.
Insane.
In Spain, as I guess everywhere, lots of fear porn, official declarations and variant radar went on B117
Now we're simply told it's largely the main strain circulating
What happened?
Armageddon, surely!
Of course NOT.
NOTHING happened: normally going back to summer basal phase
So, remember, everytime you hear 'Variant' you're facing someone who thinks you're dumb, or, not unlikely, a very dumb person talking.
And so if they use India now:
Check true death in India compared to Europe
Are we dumb enough to keep buying this gross manipulations?
I'm not
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WORST NUMBER OF CASES IN A DAY IN ANY COUNTRY, decorated with terrible burning corpses images.
At the same time the Indian Double Variant appears as The New Threaten.
A little detail is left apart:
~1.4 BILLION inhabitants
If we scale to Population India's figures we notice it's quite NOTHING extraordinary going on there.
Both cases and deaths are in what we experienced as low range for this crisis.
Talking about Armageddon in India today with similar, even lower, figures is pure PROPAGANDA.
Guess what is really growing?
As usual, tests.
In the last ~2 months, test pressure was more than DOUBLED.
Cases (and detected deaths) grow at test rates.
The old very same Fear Trick
They sold 3K deaths in China like The End of the World.
Are we stupid enough to swallow again?
Every Friday, the Spain's daily report includes a test done/positivity graph.
It allows us to directly check test policy Vs perceived epidemic.
Apart from the yet officially unexplained partial relation between them (more test, more positivity), we can check trends.
While positivity follows a harmonic waving, we observe 2 prominent abrupt spikes in testing, unrelated to any trend change in positivity.
1st is JUST the week before Xmas, 2nd the week before Easter.
How appropriate.
Just preforming the Irresponsible behaviour during holidays.
Now we're under extra test pressure, the Easter Bump, the little valley is due to holiday testing cease, and inner political issue (Madrid elections) is to blame for the delayed decrease.
We've refined a little more our Old Fake estimate as function of Ct values.
Madrid dataset we use included 3 Ct frames, <20, 20-30 & >30.
Our equation changes slightly:
%Old positivity=(Ct-28)/3
It brings a good approximate to calculated Old Detection:
Method used for this refinement was considering all the Ct>20 as true positive and considering Average Ct for >20.
We observe the calculated Old Positivity fits with this average Ct, and we used to estimate the relation.
Our equation also models that every point the Ct Average grows, the Old Positivity increases ~30%, so around Ct~31 and over your detecting almost only Old Fake Positives.
We've found that False (Old) PCR positivity is a function of PCR average Ct.
Fake Old Cases are created if average Ct is over ~27.5
Then on, Fake proportion grows at ~30% for each average Ct point.
At AvCt>31 we will have ~only old fake cases.
The method:
THREAD
We have Madrid dataset with PCR&Antigen test results and PCR Ct averages.
Using them we can calculate the positivities found with each of the methods. We observe they're similar, but PCR is higher with lower prevalence, and Ant with higher prevalence.
Let's compare them.
If we find their proportions we notice PCR is almost all the way giving MUCH HIGHER positivities than Antigen.
They could have same rate (1) if test were technically equal, OR a constant disproportion due to better specificity/sensitivity.
But changing over time makes NO SENSE.
Accepting PCR as the Gold Standard because it brings higher positive rates is like choosing a thermometer because it sometimes gives higher temperatures.
PCR/Antigen positivities is NOT constant, varies from ~1/1 to higher than 2/1
That's NOT better detection, but fraudulent +
In our research on Madrid's Ct data (amazing results soon!), we needed the best sensitivity&especificity actual values for PCR&Antigen tests.
It's amazing how studies comparing both ASSUME PCR is the ruler, despite the fact that ELISA results use to align better with antigen's.
When they find low prevalence 2x PCR/Antigen positivities, they never think, hey, it COULD be PCR is detecting too much
Like they didn't know high Ct PCR catches lots of viral non infective fragments
Why could any test get better(or worse) depending on prevalence?!
If we check Europe excess death, we see winter seasonal epidemic is done&gone
Current fear bubble&restrictions rush is a Human Artifact politically created thru testing from mid February on
How can it be Armageddon when there's no excess death or even lesser deaths than expected?
Of course excess death is NOT the Epidemic, lots of unexpected deaths are occurring due to Covid madness. But they're flat in time, a ~constant background, following the all cause deaths pattern.
The WAVING in excess death will relate the shape of epidemic death, not its height.
The good January correlation death/cases is due to a flat test pressure, as u can see in the most populated countries testing graphics
True trend was detected
Once basal phase was reached, testing pointed slightly upwards, with strong growths in France and TESTING MADNESS in UK