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Value Investigator Profile picture
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27 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Back in Prosus $PRX.AS
• trades at a 33% discount to its 29% stake in Tencent.
• €16.5bn in cash
• €9.3bn in delivery hero (25% stake) and mail.ru (27% stake)
• ~ €29bn stakes in private companies (at a 7.5x revenue multiple)

-> 46% discount to NAV(!)
Tencent can sell its tencent stake without paying capital gains tax. And tencent has already done so. There is hence no rational reason for this excessive NAV discount.
The investment thesis for the next years will heavily depend on tencent. I am confident tencent is at least a double over the next 5ys.
A combination of strong fundamental performance of tencent combined with a significant reduction of the NAV discount should allow for outsized total returns for Prosus shareholders in the next 3-5ys.
IMO Prosus has many potential levers to increase shareholder value:
1) sell assets to buy back shares
2) improve transparency around the NAV/SOTP calculation. It was a pain to get these numbers together.

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Value Investigator Profile picture
30 Apr
New Position:
Hello Fresh Group $HFG

A great business with a long growth runway at a (very) reasonable valuation.

• trades at 24x 2020 FCF
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Value Investigator Profile picture
7 Apr 20
I’m on a discount-to-NAV shopping spree.
During crises, some listed investments fall way more than their underlying net asset values (NAVs). Value stocks, defined as those with the highest discounts to NAV tend to outperform over the cycle (the P1 portfolio in the picture below)
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NAV is the average analyst estimate from the last 3 months.
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16 Jan 20
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