wow, Zuckerberg and press-friendly Mosseri are live trying to steer press towards an a16z-sanctioned creators narrative.
The only story is Apple iOS 14.5, here are 3 points I made earlier today on effect on Apple users, business/investors and the drama between Apple/Facebook.
#1 - Consumers: without question, this is a net positive. With one iOS push, Apple made a default world where the only company who can harvest your data is the app you’re choosing to use and if companies want to track you across other apps they need to ask your permission.
#2 - Investors: Facebook is clear loser and we’ve now seen multiple suits where Facebook has intentionally withheld information from investors. FB gets a majority of their data when you’re not actually choosing to use its apps and Apple has kneecapped it 24hrs before FB earnings.
#3 - Drama: It’s been remarkable to watch Facebook run a national ad campaign, lobby politicians, hold secret meetings with clients, attack Apple on Q4 earnings to try to stop Apple. Needless to say, Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook are not good messengers here and it’s been obvious.
ps it's also worth remembering Apple is a juggernaut who in this case has done something positive for consumers but likely only because it aligns with their own interests. In the next power struggle between industry behemoths the consumer may very well be the victim. Eyes open.
If you read NYT report yesterday on epic struggle by Facebook to stop Apple from kneecapping its business, there was reference to FB's private meetings to create drama with ad clients. Now that Apple has moved forward, here is a taste from video of those meetings in three clips.
I should note the video was posted by Facebook on its public site. I didn't share it at the time as my suspicion was FB actually wanted it in the wild as a purposeful leak of its gaslighting to protect its surveillance biz (note their title slide should say Jan 2021). (1 of 3)
Here is probably the most interesting few minutes as it leans into the pandemic, small businesses, misinformation about Apple's practices and death of free services. Let's listen to her "doubleclick on why" - this is some incredible work by Clegg's PR team but it failed. (2 of 3)
And the close, "We are in it together" ... despite the fact almost no one on the planet wants to be in anything together with Facebook. It's just necessary. That’s all… since it was public I thought it would be useful to see it. (3 of 3)
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78 seconds. Listen closely. Apple has kneecapped Facebook pushing out an update fo 1+ BIL devices.
Remember: 1) in no way does this update stop personalized ads, it stops surveillance 2) a majority of Facebook’s data is collected when users aren’t on its services (surveillance).
Full context for those clips. Sandberg did her normal mom and pop song mixing in vaccine heartstrings. India is a bit much considering FB suppressed Modi protesting today. Again gaslights to confuse FB’s tracking and surveillance business model as simply “personalized ads.” /2
CFO works in short message about “headwinds” and transatlantic data transfer issues (Schrems II). This is all CYA and we’ve seen Facebook’s history of downplaying risk so these mentions mean something big. /3
Just having this convo. Of course, Facebook will present this as not a big deal. If the world knows data protection (something consumers want) is a risk to Facebook, then sharks will circle and regulatory and advocacy risk will heighten. #KneecapFacebook
So instead they’ll push creators, small business and normal formula for empowering the long tail. The CFO message above will serve as their “CYA” and they will go out of their way not to highlight the largest risk they’ve ever seen.
A word about YouTube. There will be hundreds of euphoric reports this morning on YT's incredible growth in Google's earnings. Having listened, I heard remarkably little detail about the biz and thought about this 2018 piece when they were 60% smaller. /1 digitalcontentnext.org/blog/2018/03/0…
some math:
-YouTube reported $6B in Q1 global ad revenue, much of it video.
-That's $24B+ global / year.
-US market is typically close to 50% of Google's biz
-Google's own trade group says US video ad biz is $26B/yr
-net net, YouTube dominates US digital video ad revenues. /2
It's a remarkable percentage considering video is the one area where there is outsized IP and creator value. Now much of the revenue gets passed on so lots of people are happy. So I'm also 😀. But I still go back to my original piece on Goog obfuscation. For a biz this core... /3
Senate hearing underway. Nice to see @BostonJoan connecting data protection and antitrust with misinformation. "needs an overhaul, so that companies are not able to siphon data and leverage it to maximize an advantage over consumers."
"This is because Facebook knew, even back then, that their products could threaten privacy on a scale society had never reckoned with before." again noting risks and harms. misinformation downstream from them. @tim_cook Apple also understands this hence 14.5.
"We have to prepare for the worst here." - VP, ad chief
"I think there is a real chance this is a very bad moment for us" - VP
"how long can we get away with the reach overestimation?"
"This is a lawsuit waiting to happen." /1
These are statements in "Highly Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only" evidence unsealed in a Facebook fraud case over weekend. In Feb, FB had framed the complaint to press as "cherry-picked" but we can now see full threads including Facebook COO, CFO, and half-dozen senior VPs. /2
Quick explainer (1 of 3): Measurement issues were an ongoing issue according to COO Sandberg to CFO Wehner. And an analyst had now noted Facebook's projected numbers in its advertising planning tools were even larger than actual people (using the US census). /2