Thread: MBS appeared on TV in a 90-min interview to commemorate 5-yr anniversary of Vision 2030. Not much controversy was expected given the Saudi state’s sponsorship of the event. Timing, presenter, & setup point toward nationalist agenda & local audience, but messages go beyond
Interview served 2 main purposes: reaffirm CP’s continuous command of KSA & its local transformation; accentuate recent FP shifts through a revamped persona & realist positions. Extent to which both messages win over though depends less on talk and more on actions on the ground.
Domestic agenda occupied the lion’s share. Key theme was the regime’s success in building a center of gov that can run the country. Previous monarchs may beg to differ, but CP gave concrete examples of what that means: strategy, policies, & budget no longer reside in ministries.
They now operate from the center, increasing synergies and rate of success. Several stats shared to reinforce idea. A 2nd domestic element is HR & choice of people. Passion is introduced as the key criteria for leadership positions. It could come before effectiveness even.
Economy & housing dominated. Upgrade real estate dev & bld more. PIF will grow; more investors into Aramco; Shareek defended; & more cash will be injected into local economy. No income taxes; VAT + other measures will be cut in 1-5yrs. Downsides of above v lightly touched upon.
Broad brush presentation of health & education reforms that will soon be presented in detail. Emphasis on skills instead of content acquisition (ed) & insurance schemes + non-profit hospitals (health). Defended environment policy & intended growth of Riyadh & dev of all of Saudi.
Religion: empowers direct & varied interpretation of Quran & Hadith while tightening recourse to hadith & move away from over reliance on any given scholar or school of thought, including MIAW. Religious card adeptly used to legitimize changes & could be a prep for more to come.
Terrorism is shunned yet undefined. No mention of MB, imprisoned or recently released figures even though the presenter references those in prison. On FP, much softened tone on “neighbor” Iran w/ hope for better relations once foreign meddling, nuclear & ballistic missiles sorted
Yemen is presented as a historic crisis that keeps on resurfacing w/ an indirect fig leaf offered to Houthis who will not let go of their Arab, Yemeni traits per the CP. No mention of their escalating attacks & no mention of talks in Baghdad.
That said & unsaid during the interview speaks to the intent to refurbish the CP image internationally. All depends on upcoming actions. The interview trended in the GCC w/ some lamenting their local setting when compared to MBS, regardless of situation & setbacks in #SaudiArabia
Finally, body language probably said much more. Excessive twist of the neck is new & may speak to an anxiety of a sort, whether due to holding a data intense interview or other factors. It replaced his usual recourse to “without a doubt” reduced to only 7 times throughout 90 mins
Unscripted; surrounded by images of his father and grandfather; and little recourse to the cup of water in front of him. Such i/v is an uncommon scene in the Gulf. Will be interesting to follow ongoing domestic & modified FP directions gleaned in this interview. #لقاء_ولي_العهد

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More from @bmalsaif

9 Mar 20
THREAD: As expected, it is decrees season in #Oman. Sultan #Haitham just announced 10 more decrees today. Most important of them is the promotion of #Shihab bin Tariq to deputy prime minister for #defense affairs. What are the implications of this decision?
2. Shihab bin Tariq (b. 1955) is the sultan's full, younger brother (by a year). Shihab and Haitham were part of the candidates list for sultan alongside their half brother, #Asaad. Shihab was #Qaboos's advisor (2004-20) and head of the research council among other duties.
3. Between 1990-04, Shihab was Commander of the Royal Navy of Oman. Shihab joins the government alongside his brothers, the sultan and Asaad. Both Asaad and Shihab are equally ranked at deputy prime minister. Yet are they really equal?
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